瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain in a situation of excessive supply, with industry inventories at a high level. It is recommended to trade with a light - position in a volatile manner and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks. For options, the call - to - put ratio of open interest is 38.21%, with call positions dominant in the options market, and the market sentiment is bullish, with implied volatility slightly rising. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to trade with a light - position in a slightly weak volatile manner and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 60,860 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 30,113 hands, down 2,229 hands; the open interest of the main contract is 339,673 hands, up 3,866 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,140 yuan/ton, down 3,400 yuan; the warehouse receipts on the GZEE are 36,684 hands/ton, up 60 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,600 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,390 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 749 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,140 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,760 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 47%, down 10 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 23.85%, down 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 20.44%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call open interest is 157,839 contracts, up 19,108 contracts; the total put open interest is 60,309 contracts, up 7,453 contracts; the put - to - call ratio of total open interest is 38.21%, up 0.1096 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.30%, up 0.0085 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In April 2025, China imported 28,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% month - on - month increase and a 34% year - on - year increase. From January to April, China cumulatively imported 79,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 27% cumulative year - on - year increase. In April, China exported 734 tons of lithium carbonate, a 334% month - on - month increase and a 213% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 633,000 tons, with lithium spodumene from Australia, Zimbabwe and Nigeria accounting for 79%. Wanrun New Energy signed a supply agreement for 1.3231 million tons of lithium iron phosphate products with CATL. CATL promised to purchase no less than 80% of the company's committed volume monthly from 2025 - 2030. In the first quarter, Leapmotor had a remarkable performance, with revenue increasing by 187.1% year - on - year to 10.02 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin reaching 14.9%. The net loss attributable to the parent company was 130 million yuan, a significant narrowing compared with the loss of 1.01 billion yuan in the same period last year. In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the month - on - month growth was 0.24%. In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the month - on - month growth was 0.22% [2].