合成橡胶产业日报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent raw material butadiene prices have been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdowns of some units, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber units are expected to restart, increasing supply. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. Most semi - steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels but with slow overall shipments and continued inventory growth. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires is in a restorative upward trend, but some enterprises have increased inventory due to shipment pressure, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling below the pre - holiday average. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 12,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton. The main contract position was 16,991, a decrease of 2,538. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 60 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. Brent crude oil was 65.54 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.13 dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan was 569.38 dollars/ton, an increase of 4 dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 780 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR China butadiene intermediate price was 1,220 dollars/ton, unchanged. WTI crude oil was 62.69 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.2 dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 11,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged. The weekly butadiene capacity utilization rate was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The port butadiene inventory was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 47.28%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 79.2%, an increase of 4.46 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.09%, an increase of 20.32 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period (May 7, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on -，month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points. In April 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [2].