瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to some domestic urea plants shutting down recently, daily production has decreased. With no plant scheduled to shut down this week and three shutdown plants resuming production, the probability of an increase in production is high considering short - term enterprise malfunctions [2]. - Agricultural demand is gradually rising, and port - collection demand will increase under the influence of export news. Industrial demand is mainly for rigid procurement. Some areas' summer fertilizer production will gradually end, and the short - term start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain stable or decline slightly [2]. - Last week, urea enterprise inventories decreased significantly. Recently, influenced by export news, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and some domestic industrial and agricultural downstream sectors have increased procurement. Some goods have flowed to ports, helping factory inventories decline gradually. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1840 - 1900 yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou urea main contract closing price: 1849 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; 9 - 1 spread: 77 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Zhengzhou urea main contract open interest: 219,169 lots, down 2,566 lots; top 20 net open interest: 168 lots, up 549 lots [2]. - Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts: 7,572 lots, down 127 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Domestic spot prices in various regions have declined. For example, in Hebei it is 1900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Henan it is 1910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 350 and 355 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. - Zhengzhou urea main contract basis: 41 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory: 16.3 million tons, up 3 million tons; enterprise inventory: 81.72 million tons, down 24.84 million tons, a 23.31% decrease [2]. - Urea enterprise start - up rate: 86.4%, down 0.95%; daily urea production: 199,200 tons [2]. - Urea export volume: 0 tons; monthly urea production: 6,087,080 tons, up 610,930 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer start - up rate: 40.26%, up 2.36%; melamine start - up rate: 74.82%, down 0.42% [2]. - Weekly profit of compound fertilizer: 191 yuan/ton; monthly compound fertilizer production: 6.8383 million tons, down 1.13 million tons [2]. - Weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea: - 370 yuan/ton; weekly melamine production: 37,160 tons, down 210 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 14, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 81.72 million tons, a 23.31% decrease from last week [2]. - As of May 15, China's urea port sample inventory was 16.3 million tons, a 22.56% increase from last week [2]. - As of May 15, China's urea production was 1.3947 million tons, a 1.09% decrease from the previous period; the weekly average daily production was 199,200 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week; the capacity utilization rate was 86.40%, a 0.95% decrease from the previous period [2]. 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and start - up rate on Thursday [2]. - For the UR2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1840 - 1900 yuan [2].