瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The supply side of lead is affected by unclear lead prices, with the operating rate and production of primary lead refineries declining. The continuous decline in lead prices has increased the loss pressure of secondary lead, and secondary lead refineries have been forced to lower their operating rates due to losses and raw material constraints. The demand side has weak support for lead prices, with overall light market transactions. Overseas inventories are still being depleted, but the decline is small, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs. Domestic inventories have increased slightly, and overseas prices are suppressing the upward space of domestic prices. The lead concentrate processing fee remains low, which has a partial impact on the resumption of work of secondary and primary lead. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,845 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,000 dollars/ton, down 4.5 dollars. The spread between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 68,494 lots, up 835 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,464 lots, up 78 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 44,980 tons, down 5,067 tons. The SHFE inventory is 55,472 tons, up 5,968 tons; the LME lead inventory is 248,850 tons, down 1,825 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,650 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 4.45 dollars/ton, up 0.38 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,078 yuan, down 1.87 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 74.66%, down 2.85 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.45 tons, down 0.08 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,058.93 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries is 20,625 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of lead - acid batteries and other batteries is 1,654.38 points, up 7.26 points. The monthly automobile output is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 0.454 million vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The US Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the G7 finance ministers' meeting this week. The UK and the EU have reached agreements in multiple fields such as fisheries, defense security, and trade. India is discussing a three - part US trade agreement, and a temporary agreement is expected to be reached before July. The US Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate in April was - 1%, the largest decline since March 2023. Some Fed officials have expressed their views on interest - rate cuts and market mechanisms [2].