瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 fell 1.24% to close at 2,545 yuan/ton. The supply side saw a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% in caustic soda capacity utilization to 82.6%. The demand side had the alumina开工率 drop 0.29% week - on - week to 75.47%, viscose staple fiber开工率 down 0.35% to 80.65%, and printing and dyeing开工率 up 2.55% to 63.23%. Last week, liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased 7.08% week - on - week to 415,900 tons, with high inventory pressure. The 720,000 - ton Shanghai Chlor - Alkali plant shut down recently, expected to be under maintenance for about 30 days, relieving spot supply pressure. The alumina production cut scale expanded, running capacity remained low, and industry profits started to recover. The tariff reduction benefits non - aluminum terminal exports like clothing, but non - aluminum demand is currently average, with only rigid procurement and some downstream resistance to high prices. SH2509 has support around 2,500 and resistance around 2,630 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 41 yuan/ton to 2,545 yuan/ton; the futures position increased by 14,213 hands to 200,894 hands; the net position of the top 20 futures decreased by 10,050 hands to - 22,650 hands; the futures trading volume decreased by 447,265 hands to 614,716 hands. The closing price of the January contract decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 2,507 yuan/ton, and the May contract remained at 2,546 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 950 yuan/ton with no change. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 80 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 665 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 70 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina was 3,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. From May 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%. As of May 15th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.09% and a year - on - year increase of 1.74% [2].