原油成品油早报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report indicates that short - term oil prices are likely to be volatile and on the stronger side, while in the medium - to - long - term, crude oil is expected to maintain a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus. The market has different expectations for OPEC's July production increase, with a 10 - 40 million barrels per day increase having a higher probability. The global refined oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, and the US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years and continues to be depleted. The domestic refinery operations have stabilized, and gasoline and diesel are being further destocked, with refinery profits showing some recovery [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 13 - 19, 2025, WTI increased by $0.20 to $62.69, BRENT increased by $0.13 to $65.54, and DUBAI decreased by $0.04 to $64.03. The spread between WTI - BRENT increased by $0.07 to - $2.85, and the spread between DUBAI - BRT increased by $0.07 to $1.70. Other related spreads and prices also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - US President Trump mentioned that it might be time to sanction Russia, and the sanctions could push the situation forward. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that if the US adheres to the "zero uranium enrichment" policy, the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US will fail. The EU may propose to the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 9, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, and domestic crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels to 1.3387 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports decreased by 637,000 barrels per day to 336,900 barrels per day. The average four - week supply of US refined oil products decreased by 1.19% compared to the same period last year. In China, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries stabilized. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, with the production of both gasoline and diesel increasing in major refineries and decreasing in local refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel in local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel were slightly destocked, and the comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries decreased [5]. 3.4 Weekly Views - The oil price fluctuated this week. The US - Iran negotiations were deadlocked again over the weekend. The market still has different expectations for OPEC's production increase in July, with a 10 - 40 million barrels per day increase having a higher probability. Globally, refined oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years and continues to be depleted, and the shale oil drilling rig count is basically flat. The global refinery profit has recovered, and the US refinery operations continue to strengthen. The inventory of gasoline and diesel in the US is still low, and the cracking of gasoline and diesel is supported. It is expected to maintain a pattern of stronger gasoline and weaker diesel in the near term. Domestically, refinery operations have stabilized, gasoline and diesel are being further destocked, and refinery profits have recovered. In the short term, the oil price is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side, while in the medium - to - long - term, crude oil is expected to maintain a bearish pattern [6].