建信期货国债日报-20250521

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The LPR was lowered as expected, the deposit rate was cut accordingly, and the money market remained stable. The bond market lacked a clear direction, and treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly across the board. The yields of most major-term interest rate bonds in the interbank market rose, with the medium- and long-term yields rising by about 1-2bp. The central bank conducted net open market operations, resulting in a stable money market. The short-term money market rates in the interbank market showed mixed trends, while the medium- and long-term funds remained stable. The economic data in April showed marginal weakness but also resilience. There was no significant risk of a short-term decline in the fundamentals. Policy may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further policy stimulus is low. The focus of market speculation should be on the money market. Although the supply pressure of government bonds has eased marginally this week, there is tax payment pressure, which may still restrict the rebound of the bond market. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the reduction of deposit rates will drive the further decline of capital prices [8][9][10][11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: The LPR was lowered as expected, the deposit rate was cut accordingly, and the money market remained stable. The bond market lacked a clear direction, and treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly across the board [8]. - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of most major-term interest rate bonds in the interbank market rose, with the medium- and long-term yields rising by about 1-2bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond, 250004, reported 1.6660%, up 1.1bp [9]. - Money Market: The central bank conducted net open market operations, resulting in a stable money market. There were 180 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank carried out 357 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 177 billion yuan. The short-term money market rates in the interbank market showed mixed trends. The weighted overnight rate of interbank deposits dropped 2bp to 1.52%, and the 7-day rate dropped 1.6bp to around 1.58%. The medium- and long-term funds remained stable, and the 1-year certificate of deposit rate of state-owned large banks was in the range of 1.65-1.69%, showing little change from the previous day [10]. - Conclusion: The economic data in April showed marginal weakness but also resilience. There was no significant risk of a short-term decline in the fundamentals. Policy may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further policy stimulus is low. The focus of market speculation should be on the money market. Although the supply pressure of government bonds has eased marginally this week, there is tax payment pressure, which may still restrict the rebound of the bond market. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the reduction of deposit rates will drive the further decline of capital prices [11]. 2. Industry News - Economic Data: In April, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.2% but lower than the previous value of 7.7%. From January to April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year. From January to April, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. Among them, private fixed asset investment increased by 0.2% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.10% in April. In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, lower than the expected 5.5% and the previous value of 5.9%. From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1.61845 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 1.47005 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. From January to April, China's real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, of which residential investment decreased by 9.6%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8%, and the decline was 0.2 percentage points narrower than that from January to March. Among them, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 2.1%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 3.2%, of which the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 1.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 4.1% year-on-year. The real estate development climate index in April was 93.86 [12]. - Housing Prices: In April, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities were flat or slightly down month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. The sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities was flat month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% increase in the previous month. The sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities was flat month-on-month, the same as the previous month. The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points wider than the previous month, respectively. Notably, the month-on-month increase in new home prices in Shanghai and Dalian ranked first in the country, and the month-on-month increase in second-hand home prices in Ganzhou ranked first [13]. - International News: The UK is expected to reach the most significant reset agreement with the EU since Brexit, seeking to strengthen cooperation in trade and defense to promote economic growth and enhance security in the European continent. On Sunday local time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that some US trading partners may soon face a significant increase in tariff rates again. Yellen said that if countries do not "sincerely" negotiate and fail to reach a trade agreement before the tariff suspension period expires at the beginning of July, the tariff rates will soon return to the "Liberation Day" level. US President Donald Trump announced a series of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2 and called that day "Liberation Day" [13]. - Deposit Rate Cut: According to Securities Times, starting from May 20, many state-owned large banks and some joint-stock banks will cut the listed RMB deposit rates again. A person from a state-owned large bank said that the bank's listed current deposit rate will be cut by 5bp to 0.05%, the listed fixed deposit rate for lump-sum deposits and withdrawals will be cut by 15bp to 25bp, and some agreement deposits and notice deposits will also be cut by 10bp to 15bp [14]. 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on May 20, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for various contracts [6]. - Money Market: The report includes information on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, interbank pledged repo weighted interest rate change, and interbank deposit pledged repo rate change [26][28]. - Derivatives Market: The report presents the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [31].