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建信期货铁矿石日评-20250521
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-21 01:49

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Conditions on May 20 Futures Contracts - RB2510 closed at 3058 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 1,285,345 lots and an open interest of 2,160,329 lots [5] - HC2510 closed at 3202 yuan/ton, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 435,507 lots and an open interest of 1,350,873 lots [5] - SS2507 closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.00%, with a trading volume of 133,035 lots and an open interest of 128,677 lots [5] - I2509 closed at 725 yuan/ton, up 0.28%, with a trading volume of 323,225 lots and an open interest of 734,150 lots [5] Black - series Futures Positions - For I2509, the top 20 long positions were 460,413 lots, a decrease of 5,618 lots; the top 20 short positions were 478,665 lots, a decrease of 741 lots; the long - short difference was - 4,877 lots, with a deviation of - 1.04% [8] Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On May 20, major iron ore overseas quotes were flat compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9] - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to decline and the D value continuing to rise; the red bar of the daily MACD indicator has been narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [9] News and Policy - On May 20, the 5 - year LPR dropped 10 basis points to 3.5%. For a 1 - million - yuan commercial loan with a 30 - year term and equal - principal - plus - interest repayment, the monthly payment will be reduced by 56 yuan, and the total reduction over 30 years will be 20,000 yuan [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal, increase central investment support, and issue the 2025 central budget investment plan for urban renewal by the end of June [10][11] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, with the total shipments from 19 ports rising by 283.6 tons to 2706.1 tons. The 45 - port arrivals decreased again, but overall remained at a medium level. It is expected that the arrivals will remain at a medium - high level in the near future, and iron ore supply will remain loose [12] - Demand: Last week, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly to 244.77 tons, and the output of the five major steel products also declined slightly. However, considering the increasing profitability of enterprises, it is expected that iron ore demand will still be strongly supported in the near future [12] - Inventory: The number of days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and port inventory decreased slightly to 141 million tons, the lowest since mid - March 2024. It is expected that the room for further decline in port inventory is limited [12] Overall Outlook - After the Sino - US Geneva talks, market sentiment was significantly boosted. During the 90 - day suspension period, "rush - to - export" and "rush - to - re - export" phenomena will continue. It is advisable to consider buying hedging or investment strategies on dips [13] - However, the rumor of "crude steel production control" and the long - term nature of the September contract may suppress raw material prices and limit the rebound space of iron ore prices [13] Group 4: Industry News - In May, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month; the 1 - year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [14] - From January to April, the national general public budget revenue was 8061.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The national tax revenue was 6555.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the non - tax revenue was 1506 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [15] - From January to April, the stamp duty was 161.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.9%. The securities trading stamp duty was 53.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.8% [15] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spread between high - grade ore and PB powder, the spread between low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, etc. [20][21]