建信期货棉花日报-20250521

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Fundamentals changed little, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton were mostly above CF09 + 1100, and the low - price offers gradually decreased. The basis of Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 cotton was mostly above CF09 + 850. The cotton yarn market had a fair performance recently, with downstream restocking. The cotton yarn inventory decreased, while the gray fabric market remained weak [7]. - Overseas market: The USDA weekly export signing report showed an improvement in signing compared to the previous week. The shipment decreased but was still in the peak period. The U.S. cotton planting progress was slightly slower than the same period last year, and the drought level dropped to the 5 - year average. The outer market fluctuated widely [8]. - Domestic market: The new cotton planting was generally good, with the sown area expected to increase steadily. The cotton yarn inventory decreased again due to restocking by weavers and traders, but the gray fabric market showed little improvement. After the macro - pressure weakened, Zhengzhou cotton filled the gap, but the weak fundamentals remained unchanged. It was recommended to focus on the performance of the upper resistance level and conduct range - based operations [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, most cotton - growing areas in China had sufficient light and suitable climate last week, which was beneficial for cotton sowing and seedling growth. Cotton fields in Xinjiang were mostly in the third true - leaf stage, and the overall growth was good. It was predicted that there might be strong convective weather in northern Xinjiang and sandy weather in southern Xinjiang this week. Suggestions included timely soil loosening in water - logged areas, preparing for wind and hail in advance, and checking and replanting seedlings in affected fields [9].