Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 21, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is increasing while demand is weakening, leading to a generally loose supply - demand situation and a weakening trend in spot prices. Futures contracts are also expected to remain weak due to the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and expected second - round fattening sales [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 20th, the main 2509 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing down. The highest price was 13,730 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,665 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,690 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,149 lots to 160,627 lots [6]. - Spot Market: On the 20th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 14.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - Demand Side: Currently, the fattening cost is low and the breeding profit is good, but the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, and the pen utilization rate is relatively high. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening replenishment is average, with mostly sporadic and continuous entry. As the temperature rises, terminal demand weakens, slaughter enterprise orders decrease, and the slaughter rate and volume decline. On May 20, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 143,500 heads, a decrease of 11,000 heads from the previous day and 40,000 heads from a week ago [7]. - Supply Side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in May is 23.65 million heads, a 1.98% increase from the actual slaughter volume in April. Farmers are actively selling pigs, and with the continuous sales of previously second - round fattened pigs, the average slaughter weight has increased slightly [7]. 2. Industry News - From May 11 - 17, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 630 yuan/head, down 17 yuan/head from the previous week [10]. - As of May 15, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 170 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 19 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened from purchased piglets was 118 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 14 yuan/head [10][11] 3. Data Overview - From May 11 - 17, the national average slaughter weight was 129.71 kg, unchanged from the previous week, a monthly increase of 0.89% and an annual increase of 3.52% [21]. - From May 11 - 17, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.02 yuan/jin, a weekly decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin [21]. - As of May 15, the expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 13.09 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/kg. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling was 15.09 yuan/kg, a weekly decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg [21].
建信期货生猪日报-20250521
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-21 01:57