玉米日报-20250521

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Corn Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - The price of corn is expected to decline as the supply increases due to traders' need to clear inventory before the wheat harvest in North China, and the substitution of wheat for corn in feed use is increasing. Although demand has slightly increased, inventory levels are sufficient. Futures prices of the 2507/2509 contracts will likely follow the spot market with a downward trend. Futures prices also depend on the weather and growth conditions in wheat and corn production areas [9]. Group 4: Market Review and Recommendations Corn Market - Futures: On the 20th, the main 2507 corn contract opened slightly lower, then declined and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative candle. The highest price was 2339 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2310 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2312 yuan/ton, a 0.86% decrease from the previous trading day. The total open interest of the index increased by 22,229 lots to 2,057,122 lots. - Spot: On the 20th, the price of second - grade corn at Jinzhou Port was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Corn Analysis - Supply: Grass - roots grain sources are almost exhausted, with traders being the main suppliers. Port inventories are in the destocking phase but remain at a high level compared to the same period. - Substitutes: Wheat has an increasing advantage in feed substitution for corn, increasing its use in the feed industry. The rising price of corn at southern ports makes imported barley more price - competitive, potentially increasing imports. - Demand: The continuous growth of the pig inventory drives the demand for feed. Feed enterprises mainly purchase on - demand, replenish stocks in a rolling manner, and sign forward orders. Deep - processing enterprises are in deep losses, with high starch inventories, declining operating rates, and reduced corn consumption. They mainly maintain just - in - time procurement. The inventory of downstream feed enterprises has slightly increased and is at a high level, and they mainly execute previous orders, while the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has slightly decreased, and overall processing demand is unlikely to increase significantly [9]. Group 5: Industry News - On May 19, corn prices at north - south ports were basically stable. In Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and a bulk density of 720 was 2260 - 2300 yuan/ton, and the fob price of corn with 15% moisture was 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In Bayuquan Port, the prices were the same as in Jinzhou Port. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of bulk corn with 15% moisture was 2410 - 2430 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2450 - 2470 yuan/ton, also unchanged. - In the northeast production area, the enthusiasm of traders to sell grain increased, and the morning collection volume at northern ports slightly increased. Due to high arrival costs, traders mainly set prices based on sales and execute contracts. At southern ports, high - priced corn orders decreased due to policy rumors. Feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders or use wheat as a substitute, and overall market trading activities were average. Arrival costs supported stable quotes from traders [10][12]. Group 6: Data Overview - Russia: Unfavorable weather led to crop losses of slightly over 100,000 hectares, but almost all damaged areas have been replanted. From January to April this year, the grain transshipment volume at Russian seaports was 12.1 million tons, a 52.7% decrease compared to the same period last year. - US - China: As of May 8, 2025, the shipment volume of US corn exports to China (Mainland) in the 2024/25 season was 33,000 tons, compared to 2.16 million tons in the same period last year. - EU: As of now in the 2024/25 season, EU corn imports have increased by 12% due to a surge in imports from the US, offsetting the decline in imports from Ukraine and Brazil. - Ukraine: Despite poor weather in April and early May, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture maintains its forecast of 56 million tons of grain production in 2025, compared to 56.2 million tons in 2024. - Argentina: As of May 7, Argentine farmers pre - sold 15.28 million tons of corn for the 2024/25 season, 800,000 tons more than a week ago and less than the 18 million tons pre - sold in the same period last year. Last week, the pre - sale volume was 1.2 million tons. - China: As of May 15, the grain sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 97%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The grain sales progress of farmers in 7 major production provinces was 97%, 4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Recently, concerns about drought in the wheat - producing areas have eased. Coupled with the need to clear inventory and profit - taking by traders, the short - term supply of grass - roots corn has increased, and spot corn prices have fluctuated [14].