大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250521

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated May 21, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the medium - to - long term. The supply - demand situation has seasonal characteristics, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Tariff games are a major influencing factor. Short - term tariff relaxation has led to a rush - to - work situation among foreign - trade enterprises, while it's the off - season for agricultural film. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 7440 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 202, with a premium ratio of 2.8%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 58.4 tons (-5.2), neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [4] - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors are new capacity launches and weak crude oil prices. The main logics are new capacity launches and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs both declined. Tariff games are significant. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 7300 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 222, with a premium ratio of 3.1%, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 60.4 tons (-7.2), neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - work among foreign - trade enterprises. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral [6] - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; the bearish factor is weak crude oil prices. The main logics are new capacity launches and tariff policies [7] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery goods is 7440 (unchanged), the 09 - contract price is 7238 (+2), the basis is 202 (-2), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 58.4 tons [8] - PP: The spot price of delivery goods is 7300 (unchanged), the 09 - contract price is 7078 (-15), the basis is 222 (+15), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 60.4 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with varying growth rates. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]