大越期货纯碱早报-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply at the high level has slightly declined, the terminal demand improvement is limited, the inventory has been continuously declining but is still at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76%; the main basis was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67% [5] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of the heavy soda ash joint - alkali method in East China was 207.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton. The soda ash production profit was at a low level in the same period of history [14] Soda Ash开工率, Capacity and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate stabilized and rebounded; the weekly output of soda ash was 67.77 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash was 36.90 tons, and the output declined from the historical high [17][19] Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, and the actual production was 60 tons [21] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 98.42%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, the operating rate was 75% and continued to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [24][27][30] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 171.20 tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 88.33 tons, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period of history [33] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]