焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-21）-20250521

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is stable, but the market is bearish due to factors such as the slowdown in downstream replenishment demand, inventory accumulation in some mines, and a decline in online auction results. Although the daily average hot metal production remains high, the demand for coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short - term. With the first - round decline in coke prices, coking enterprises are purchasing raw coal passively, and the price of coking coal is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [2]. - Coke: The cost support for coke is weakening as coking coal prices fall. Some steel mills have slowed down their coke procurement, and some coking enterprises have accumulated inventory. Given the high - level operation of coking enterprises, weak downstream demand, and reduced cost support, the coke price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Category Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Mines are producing steadily, but due to the decline in coke prices, coking enterprises are adopting a wait - and - see attitude, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. New orders from mines are few, and prices are under downward pressure [2]. - Price: On May 20, 2025, at 17:30, the prices of various types of coking coal from Russia and Australia in Hebei and Shandong are provided, including main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, etc. [9]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1927.1 million tons, a decrease of 24.4 million tons from last week. Specifically, the port inventory is 324.8 million tons (a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week), independent coking enterprises' inventory is 819.8 million tons (a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week), and steel mills' inventory is 782.5 million tons (a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week) [2][20][23][26]. - Market Indicators: The basis is 261.5, with the spot price higher than the futures price; the 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; the main contract has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [2]. - Factors Affecting Price: Bullish factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include a slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Fundamentals: The cost support for coke is weakening as coking coal prices fall. Some steel mills have reached a reasonable inventory level and slowed down their procurement. Although there is no obvious inventory pressure for coking enterprises at present, some have accumulated inventory [6]. - Price: On May 20, 2025, at 17:30, the prices of port metallurgical coke, including quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, are provided, with most prices showing a downward trend [10]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of coke is 978.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from last week. Specifically, the port inventory is 243.6 million tons (a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week), independent coking enterprises' inventory is 68.8 million tons (an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week), and steel mills' inventory is 666.4 million tons (an increase of 2 million tons from last week) [6][20][23][26]. - Market Indicators: The basis is 22.5, with the spot price higher than the futures price; the 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; the main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - Factors Affecting Price: Bullish factors include an increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn replenishment demand [8]. Other Data - Coking Enterprise Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [37]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [41].