《特殊商品》日报-20250521

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the storage purchase news, the rubber price increased slightly, but the weak demand expectation remains, and the expected increase in raw materials during the peak - production period suppresses the upside of the rubber price. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate widely in the range of 14,500 - 15,500, and short - selling on light positions can be considered at the upper limit of the range [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price continues to decline under pressure after breaking through the low level. The supply has a growth expectation even at low prices, while the demand remains weak. The price may continue to be under pressure, with the price fluctuation range adjusted to 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price continues to fall, attention can be paid to the way of capacity clearance [3]. Polysilicon - In May, the demand decline is highly certain, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to unchanged supply. The uncertainty of joint production cuts increases, and the polysilicon output is expected to increase. The warehouse receipts are expected to gradually increase. The spot price continues to fall, pulling down the futures price. The main fluctuation range of the futures price is expected to move down to 34,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton, and long positions should be closed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, there is new supply pressure from the output of Lianyungang Alkali Industry. The market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June, and short - term inventory is likely to remain flat. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after maintenance. Consider short - term high - selling on the far - month contracts on rebounds and 7 - 9 positive spreads [5]. - For glass, the spot market is generally weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the downstream demand has improved seasonally, the market expectation is poor, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the 09 contract observing whether it can be supported at the 1,000 level [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.67% from the previous day; the whole - milk basis switched to the 2509 contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 700% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread was - 820 yuan/ton on May 20, up 10 yuan or 1.2% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 8.7% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's production was 149,200 tons, down 197,200 tons or 56.93% from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 209,300 tons, up 11,700 tons or 5.92% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory was 618,693 tons on May 20, up 4,506 tons or 0.73% from the previous value; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE was 70,257 tons, down 4,435 tons or 5.94% [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 1.68% from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) was 890 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 8.54% [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2506 - 2507 spread was - 30 yuan/ton on May 20, down 10 yuan or 50% from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons or 12.1% from the previous month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 201,400 tons, down 17,000 tons or 7.79% from the previous value; the social inventory was 599,000 tons, up 3,000 tons or 0.5% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 37,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan or 120.59% [4]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The PS2506 contract price was 35,625 yuan/ton on May 20, down 1,525 yuan or 4.1% from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan or 18.18% [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, unchanged from the previous value; in April, the polysilicon output was 95,400 tons, down 700 tons or 0.73% from the previous month [4]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory was 250,000 tons, down 7,000 tons or 2.72% from the previous value; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 hands to 140 hands [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 20, the North China glass quotation was 1,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day; the glass 2505 contract price was 1,129 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan or 10.69% [5]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,315 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 2.33% [5]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate on May 16 was 80.27%, down 8.51% from February 9; the weekly soda ash output was 677,700 tons, down 63,000 tons or 8.52% [5]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 6,808,200 heavy boxes, up 52,200 heavy boxes or 0.77% from February 9; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 171,200 tons, up 1,100 tons or 0.63% [5]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99% compared with the previous value; the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67% compared with the previous value [5].