大越期货螺卷早报-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the demand shows a seasonal increase, inventory decreases slightly at a low level, but traders' purchasing willingness remains weak, and the downstream real estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a weak real - estate market, future demand may cool down. Although there are signs of trade - war mitigation and potential domestic policy support, it should be treated with a bearish - leaning and volatile mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decline, and exports are blocked. There are also signs of trade - war mitigation and potential domestic policy support. It should also be treated with a bearish - leaning and volatile mindset [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand has a seasonal increase, inventory decreases slightly at a low level, traders' purchasing willingness is weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - Basis: The spot price of rebar is 3190, and the basis is 132, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.3488 million tons, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [2]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Likely Factors: Production and inventory remain at a low level, and consumption increases month - on - month [3]. - Negative Factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decline, and exports are blocked. There may be domestic policy support, showing a neutral situation [5]. - Basis: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3280, and the basis is 78, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.6935 million tons, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [5]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bearish [5]. - Main Position: The net position of hot - rolled coils' main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [5]. - Likely Factors: Demand remains higher than the same period, and inventory starts to decrease [6]. - Negative Factors: The expectation of downstream demand is pessimistic [7].