建信期货铝日报-20250521

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 20th, Shanghai Aluminum continued its downward trend approaching the 20,000 mark, with the main 2507 contract reaching a minimum of 20,005 and closing at 20,075, down 0.45%. The total index position decreased by 5,569 to 515,961 lots. Spot market transactions in East China and Gongyi were average. Alumina is running strongly in the short - term due to supply concerns, but the medium - term surplus trend remains. For electrolytic aluminum, supply pressure is limited, while demand may decline in the off - season. Enterprises can lock in profits at high prices [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai Aluminum continued to fall on the 20th, with the main contract closing down 0.45%. The total index position decreased. Spot market had different performances in different regions, and the spot import loss narrowed [9] - Alumina Situation: It is running strongly in the short - term due to the suspension notice of a mining area in Guinea, but the medium - term surplus trend remains, and there are opportunities for high - level hedging [9] - Electrolytic Aluminum Situation: Supply pressure is limited due to capacity ceiling and insufficient hydropower recovery in Yunnan. Demand may decline in the off - season, and inventory may be affected [9] - Operation Suggestion: Enterprises can lock in profits at high prices considering the approaching off - season and high smelting profits [9] Group 5: Industry News - Trade Agreement: On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum and reduce the import tax rate on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars per year. In return, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market [10] - Corporate Cooperation: Norwegian aluminum giant Hydro and global aluminum die - casting manufacturer Nemak will cooperate to develop decarbonized cast aluminum products for the automotive industry. They aim to increase the proportion of recycled aluminum and shift to cleaner energy to reduce the carbon footprint [11] - Mining License: Guinea plans to revoke the mining license of UAE's EGA. EGA's export and mining activities have been suspended since October 2024, and the affected mining area has an estimated reserve of about 400 million tons of bauxite [11]