《能源化工》日报-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views Methanol - Port inventory inflection point appears, import increment expectation exerts pressure, and the increasing inventory pressure leads to a significant weakening of the basis. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate downward in the short term, with a target range of 2050 - 2100. The 69 reverse spread can be reduced at low levels [1]. Urea - The upstream new order shipment situation is fair, and most urea factories still have pre - received orders to be delivered, but the market sentiment is cautious. The trading logic of the urea market lies in the demand side, mainly the start - up rhythm of domestic agricultural demand. If there is concentrated procurement at the beginning of June, it may support the short - term price. It is recommended to wait and observe in the short - term [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. The alumina industry has a resumption expectation, and the increase in the purchase price of Shandong mainstream factories is the main driving force for the spot price increase. The futures price may rise further, but there are risks. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try a positive spread. For PVC, the short - term rebound is due to macro - stimulation and supply - demand support, but there is an over - supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper resistance of the 09 contract around 5100 [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply - demand is good, but it is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low levels around 6600. - PTA: There is an expectation of supply - demand turning weak, and it is recommended to go long at low levels around 4600 and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities. - MEG: Expected to destock in May - June, but the upward space is restricted. It is recommended to wait and observe unilaterally and go for a positive spread at low levels for the 9 - 1 spread. - Short - fiber: The raw material price is under pressure, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin at the lower limit of the range [12]. Polyolefin - LLDPE: Before early June, maintenance increases, imports are low, demand improves in the short - term, and inventory is expected to decrease. - PP: The maintenance reaches a peak in late May, supply pressure increases later, demand has short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. It is recommended to go short at high levels unilaterally, and the LP spread is expected to expand [32]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical risks, macro and fundamental factors are in a stalemate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and consider buying volatility for options [35]. Styrene - The recent rebound is based on demand expectation correction and low - inventory support, but the price shows weakness. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the EB - BZ spread widening [41]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: Most methanol futures and spot prices declined on May 20 compared to May 19, with significant changes in some spreads such as MA2505 - 2509 and MA2501 - 2505 [1]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 11.14%, while Zhongchun Port inventory decreased by 13.88%. The weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [1]. - Upstream and Downstream开工率: Some upstream and downstream开工率 changed, with the domestic enterprise开工率 slightly decreasing, and the external - procurement MTO device开工率 increasing by 12.67% [1]. Urea - Futures and Spot: Futures prices showed different changes, and most spot prices declined slightly. Some spreads and basis also changed [3]. - Position and Production Cost: The long - position and short - position of the top 20 changed, and the production cost of some raw materials remained stable [3]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days showed different changes [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with some spreads and basis showing significant fluctuations [7]. - Overseas Quotation and Export Profit: Overseas quotations and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed, with a significant decline in the export profit of PVC [7]. - Supply and Demand: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, and the inventory of PVC and caustic soda decreased [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - Price and Spread: Prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed, and there were also changes in various spreads such as PX - related, PTA - related, and MEG - related spreads [12]. - 开工率: The开工率 of various industries in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester, showed different changes [12]. Polyolefin - Price and Spread: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and some spreads and basis also changed [32]. - Inventory and开工率: PE and PP inventory showed different trends, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed [32]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Crude oil prices and spreads, including Brent, WTI, and SC, changed on May 21 compared to May 20 [35]. - Refined Oil: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads also changed [35]. Styrene - Upstream Price: Prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and pure benzene changed [38]. - Spot and Futures: Styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and monthly spread changed [39]. - Overseas Quotation and Import Profit: Overseas quotations of styrene declined, and the import profit data was incomplete [40]. - 开工率 and Profit: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed, with significant increases in the integrated and non - integrated profits of styrene [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed, with most showing a decreasing trend [41].