大越期货沥青期货早报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high as refineries have increased production recently. The overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish due to the off - season. The inventory is continuously being depleted, and the cost support from crude oil is expected to strengthen in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2507 contract oscillating between 3514 - 3568 [7][9]. - The main logical factors are that the supply pressure is high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side. The bullish factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost, which provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession [13][14][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: In May 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 34.9952%, a month - on - month increase of 5.752 percentage points. The shipment volume of sample enterprises is 244,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.23%. The output of sample enterprises is 584,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 721,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - Demand: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 34.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 11.2624%, a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 27%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 501.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 391.7057 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44.13%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short term [8]. - Others: On May 20th, the spot price in Shandong is 3625 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract is 115 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1,381,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%; the in - plant inventory is 872,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.93%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closes above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including various contract prices, price changes, basis, inventory, production, and other indicators [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: Presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26][27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: Shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: Displays the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis It shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: Shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: Presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: Displays the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - Production: Shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [51][52]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: Displays the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [55][57]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: Shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [58][59]. - 开工率: Presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [61][62]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [64][65]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [67][68][69]. - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: Displays the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [72][73]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: Shows the historical trends of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [75][76]. - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: Displays the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: Shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [82][83]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - Apparent Consumption: Displays the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - Downstream Demand: - General Downstream Demand: Shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [94][95][97]. - Asphalt Construction Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - Asphalt Construction Rate by Use: Displays the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt construction rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103]. - Downstream Construction Situation: Shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt construction rate, road - modified asphalt construction rate, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [105][106][108]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from May 2025 to May 2024, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [110][111].