大越期货菜粕早报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2480 - 2540. It is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil residue cakes. The short - term outlook is for a return to range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, leading to a tightening supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year due to reduced EU production and lower - than - expected Canadian production. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Likely to be Bearish: The increase in imported rapeseed arrivals after March, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: The average price and trading volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 9th to May 20th are provided, showing the price trends and trading volumes of both, as well as the price difference between them. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 2.9 tons, down 19.44% week - on - week from last week's 3.6 tons and 9.38% year - on - year compared to last year's 3.2 tons. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are presented, including data on harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [13][9][24]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal shows narrow - range oscillations, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical factors. Low oil mill operation and inventory support the market, and short - term demand is rising. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the lack of a tariff on rapeseed limits the upside. - Basis: The spot price is 2420, with a basis of - 90, indicating a discount to the futures price. - Inventory: As mentioned above, the inventory situation is favorable. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward. - Main Position: The main long positions have increased, but funds are flowing out. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal is expected to return to range - bound trading in the short term [9].