大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with the weekly output last week at 16,630 tons, a 3.58% increase from the previous week, and the predicted output for next month is 75,500 tons, a 2.29% increase from April 2025. The import volume is also expected to rise, with the predicted import volume for next month at 24,000 tons, a 20.00% increase from April 2025. [8][9] - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. However, the cost of 6% concentrate CIF has decreased on a daily basis, and the degree of supply surplus has increased. The price of lithium carbonate 2507 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60,160 - 61,560. [9] - The cost of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica is decreasing, but both are still at a loss. The cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [10] - The overall situation shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 16,630 tons, a 3.58% increase from the previous week. In April 2025, the output was 73,810 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 75,500 tons, a 2.29% increase. The import volume in April 2025 was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons, a 20.00% increase. [8][9] - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.50% to 86,550 tons, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials decreased by 2.37% to 15,187 tons. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - Cost - side: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF has decreased, and is lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 66,758 yuan/ton, a 0.56% decrease from the previous day, with a production loss of 4,385 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 67,761 yuan/ton, a 0.50% decrease from the previous day, with a production loss of 6,940 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt - lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins. [9][10] - Price Forecast: The price of lithium carbonate 2507 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60,160 - 61,560. [9] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and cathode materials, have shown different degrees of decline. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 0.71% to 63,250 yuan/ton. [16] - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate and related products are provided. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in April 2025 was 73,810 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 75,500 tons. The monthly import volume in April 2025 was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons. [9][18] - Demand - side Data: The production, sales, and inventory data of downstream products such as lithium - ion batteries, new energy vehicles, and ternary precursors are provided. For example, the monthly output of lithium - ion batteries has increased, and the inventory of some products has decreased. [18][55] - Inventory Data: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is 131,920 tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous week, and is higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters has increased by 3.04% to 56,522 tons, while the inventory of downstream and other sectors has decreased. [10]