燃料油早报-20250521

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread strengthened, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack spread oscillated at a high level, the near - end monthly spread strengthened, and the basis continued to strengthen. Singapore's on - land inventory continued to decline, ARA ports' inventory decreased, and US residual oil inventory increased significantly. Singapore's high - sulfur floating storage decreased, with overall inventory decline, while the Middle East floating storage oscillated at a high level, and Saudi Arabia's exports were neutral year - on - year. Fujairah's floating storage oscillated, and European floating storage decreased. Recently, low - sulfur prices strengthened, and attention should be paid to the realization of subsequent supply increments and the change in the low - sulfur export volume of Dangote Refinery. The high - sulfur crack spread ran strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has dropped significantly. The bunker fuel market is expected to be weaker year - on - year due to tariff impacts, but has recently picked up due to rush transportation. Future power generation and procurement demand should be monitored, as well as the opportunity for the high - sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium term [3][4] 3. Data Summaries by Category Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 14 to May 20, 2025, for the 3.5% HSF O swap M1 in Rotterdam, the price changed from 406.15 to 407.23, an increase of 0.19. The 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed from 451.49 to 446.09, a decrease of 0.76. The HSFO - Brent M1 changed from - 1.58 to - 0.27, an increase of 0.35. The 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased from 606.04 to 588.04, a decrease of 5.78. The VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased from - 154.55 to - 141.95, an increase of 5.02. The LGO - Brent M1 decreased from 17.57 to 15.90, a decrease of 0.47. The VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 45.34 to 38.86, a decrease of 0.95 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, for Singapore's 380cst M1, the price increased from 433.27 to 431.93, an increase of 3.15. The 180cst M1 increased from 442.48 to 438.43, an increase of 2.33. The VLSFO M1 decreased from 498.06 to 485.73, a decrease of 1.48. The Gasoil M1 increased slightly from 81.58 to 79.88, an increase of 0.05. The 380cst - Brent M1 decreased from 2.53 to 3.21, a decrease of 0.06. The VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 105.63 to - 105.38, a decrease of 1.85 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From May 14 to May 20, 2025, the FOB 380cst price in Singapore increased from 432.78 to 434.71, an increase of 3.65. The FOB VLSFO decreased from 511.73 to 498.93, a decrease of 0.45. The 380 - basis increased from - 1.45 to - 0.25, an increase of 0.20. The high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased from 7.9 to 9.6, a decrease of 0.1. The low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased from 17.0 to 12.2, a decrease of 2.3 [2] Domestic FU Data - For domestic FU, from May 14 to May 20, 2025, FU 01 increased from 2755 to 2722, an increase of 17. FU 05 increased from 2697 to 2662, an increase of 13. FU 09 increased from 2893 to 2874, an increase of 27. The FU 01 - 05 spread increased from 58 to 60, an increase of 4. The FU 05 - 09 spread decreased from - 196 to - 212, a decrease of 14. The FU 09 - 01 spread increased from 138 to 152, an increase of 10 [2] Domestic LU Data - For domestic LU, during the same period, LU 01 increased from 3451 to 3390, an increase of 12. LU 05 increased from 3401 to 3314, an increase of 1. LU 09 increased from 3521 to 3445, an increase of 8. The LU 01 - 05 spread increased from 50 to 76, an increase of 11. The LU 05 - 09 spread decreased from - 120 to - 131, a decrease of 7. The LU 09 - 01 spread decreased from 70 to 55, a decrease of 4 [3]