有色早报-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The inventory drawdown slope of copper may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the copper monthly spread, follow-up upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. - Aluminum supply has a slight increase, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July, and the aluminum price may rebound with inventory drawdown. The monthly spread long - short arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Pay attention to the inflection point from inventory drawdown to accumulation, and it is recommended to short at high levels. The domestic - overseas long - short arbitrage can continue to be held [5]. - For nickel, the current fundamental situation is average, but tariff and ore - end disturbances provide support. Opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, with both short - term long and short factors interweaving. The reverse spread arbitrage can be rolled over and held [7]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically [9][10]. - Tin prices oscillated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [12]. - The short - term supply - demand of industrial silicon both decreased, and the overall supply and demand reached a tight balance. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises [14]. - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated downward this week. In the short - term, downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price will still oscillate weakly if the operating rate of leading mining - smelting integrated enterprises does not decline significantly [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the Shanghai copper spot premium changed from - 35 to 390, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 163, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 16,175 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelting plants had a strong desire to sell due to the high monthly spread, and downstream orders slowed down, resulting in high selling pressure. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1]. Aluminum - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic alumina price increased by 46 yuan/ton. The SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the exchange inventory decreased by 0 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May did not decline significantly. There was still a supply - demand gap, and the inventory was expected to decline gently from May to July [2]. Zinc - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 4,075 tons [5]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the imported TC increased slightly. The smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. Domestic demand elasticity is average, and exports can be maintained. Overseas demand in Europe improved slightly [5]. Nickel - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 500 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Pure nickel production remained at a high level. The overall demand was weak, and the spot premium was maintained. Overseas nickel beans had a slight inventory drawdown, and domestic inventory remained stable [6]. Stainless Steel - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils decreased by 50 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: In April, production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and chrome - iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [7]. Lead - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the lead spot premium increased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 600 tons [8]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The scrap volume was weak year - on - year. The supply of raw materials was tight, and the demand was also weak. The battery export orders decreased slightly, and overall demand was sluggish. The refined - scrap price difference was - 50, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [8][9]. Tin - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the tin spot import profit decreased by 1,844.89, and the LME inventory decreased by 85 tons [12]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: The African Alphamin mine resumed production, and the long - term ore shortage expectation was alleviated. The demand for solder was inelastic, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics was expected to decline. The short - term domestic raw material supply was still disturbed [12]. Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 152 [14]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Northern large enterprises continued to cut production, and some small factories planned further production cuts. Downstream demand from organic silicon and polysilicon was declining, and the overall supply and demand reached a tight balance, with social inventory starting to decline [14]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Data: From May 14 to May 20, the SMM electric carbonate price decreased by 450 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 139 [16]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Overall production increased, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Downstream demand entered a small peak season, but the demand improvement was less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price will still oscillate weakly if the operating rate of leading enterprises does not decline significantly [16].