摩根大通：中国房地产国家统计局 4 月数据：进一步走软

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the China property sector, expecting further moderation in sales and prices, with a full-year forecast of a 7% year-over-year decline in residential sales value [1][3]. Core Insights - The latest data from NBS indicates a continued softening in the housing market, with residential sales value dropping 6.6% year-over-year in April, marking a significant decline compared to the previous month [3]. - The report highlights that primary and secondary home prices have also shown signs of moderation, with primary prices declining by 0.12% month-over-month and secondary prices dropping by 0.41% month-over-month in April [3]. - New construction starts have seen a significant year-over-year decline of 22% in April, with expectations of a 13% decline for the full year of 2025 [3]. - Completions have softened considerably, with a year-over-year decline widening from 12% in March to 29% in April, forecasting a 25% decline for the full year of 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - National residential sales value decreased by 6.6% year-over-year in April, a notable drop from a decline of 0.4% in March, and a 47% decline compared to the 4-year average [3][21]. - The report anticipates a further decline of approximately 10% year-over-year in June due to a higher base from policy easing in mid-May 2024 [3]. Price Trends - The 70-city home price index indicates a marginal widening in primary prices' month-over-month decline from 0.08% in March to 0.12% in April, while secondary prices fell by 0.41% month-over-month [3][7]. - The year-over-year decline in secondary prices is noted as the worst since October 2024, with tier-1 cities also experiencing negative month-over-month changes [3][11]. Construction Activity - New starts in April dropped by 22% year-over-year, with a decline of 71% compared to the 4-year average, marking the worst performance since October 2024 [3][40]. - Completions have also softened, with a year-over-year decline of 29% in April, leading to a forecast of a 25% decline for the full year of 2025 [3][47]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that if sales and prices deteriorate faster than expected, stronger government policy support may be rolled out, potentially leading to a market rally [1][3]. - The top picks for investment in the sector include CR Land and CR Mixc, with a tactical interest in turnaround stories such as Longfor, Jinmao, and COPH [1].