美银：全球股票配置-是否构成反向信号？

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but emphasizes the importance of differentiating between crowded trades with positive catalysts and those with negative catalysts [30][35]. Core Insights - The report relaunches the "Global Positioning in Stocks" to include "Equity Flow," which measures the dollar value of stocks bought and sold each month, and combines this data with Triple Momentum to identify potential investment opportunities [1][30]. - The analysis includes four stock screens: Crowded Positives, Under-owned Negatives, Crowded Negatives, and Under-owned Positives, which help in identifying consensus and contrarian opportunities [2][35]. - The report highlights that stocks with high ownership and overweight positions can outperform for extended periods if their fundamentals remain attractive, while under-owned stocks with positive catalysts may present investment opportunities [30][31]. Summary by Sections Active Exposure – Positioning versus Benchmark - The analysis includes over 5,647 active long-only funds managing more than US$29 trillion in equities, comparing their stock holdings against specific benchmarks to establish relative overweight and underweight positions [16][45]. Equity Flow – Long-only Funds - The report calculates the value of shares bought and sold by long-only funds each month, using Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) to approximate transaction prices [22][23]. Fund Ownership - Fund Ownership is calculated as the proportion of relevant active long-only funds that own a stock, providing insights into market sentiment towards specific stocks [26][29]. Combining Fund Ownership & Active Exposure - The report illustrates combinations of fund ownership levels and active exposure to identify stocks with varying degrees of ownership and positioning [29]. Four Stock Screens - The four stock screens are designed to identify stocks based on their positioning and momentum, categorizing them into Crowded Positives, Under-owned Positives, Crowded Negatives, and Under-owned Negatives [30][35]. Stock Positioning Charts - The report includes charts for six most important stocks in each covered region, determined by market cap and relative return volatility [36]. Methodology Changes - The report has been updated to include new analyses based on client feedback, focusing on equity flow and back-testing the performance of the four stock screens [37][44].