摩根士丹利：亚洲新兴市场股市年中展望-仍在过山车式波动中前行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight (OW) position on India, Singapore, and UAE, while upgrading Brazil to OW due to deep value and high ROE. It remains equal weight (EW) on China and underweight (UW) on Taiwan and Korea [4][9]. Core Insights - The outlook for Asia and emerging markets (EM) is gradually improving, with a June 2026 target for MSCI EM raised to 1,200, implying a 3% return. Earnings estimates are 9% below consensus for end-2026, with expected EPS growth of 6% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 [3][75]. - India is projected to have mid-teens earnings growth, while Japan's TOPIX target is set at 2,900 for a 6% upside, reflecting a cautious EPS growth profile of 1% in 2025 and 8% in 2026 [5][76]. - The report highlights a favorable mix shift in investment over consumption, driven by global spending on security and emerging technologies, which is expected to create opportunities in long-cycle capital goods stocks [39]. Summary by Sections Asia/EM Market Outlook - The MSCI EM target is set at 1,200, with a 3% return expected. The report anticipates a tricky near-term outlook due to slower GDP growth and earnings downgrades [3][74]. - EMFX appreciation is expected to support USD index earnings, underpinning EPS growth forecasts of 6% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 [3][75]. Country-Specific Insights - India remains the largest EM overweight, with earnings growth projected at mid-teens. Brazil is upgraded to OW due to deep value and high ROE [4][9]. - Japan's TOPIX target is set at 2,900, with a cautious EPS growth profile, reflecting a higher target multiple of 13.8x [5][76]. Sector Preferences - Preferred sectors include financials, industrial supply chain diversification beneficiaries, and AI adoption leaders. The report favors domestic-focused businesses over exporters and semiconductors/hardware [12][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of corporate reforms in Japan and structural growth in India, which are expected to drive sustainable earnings growth [66][67].