瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side sees an increase in the volume of pigs for sale by farmers, leading to a rise in supply. The price of fattened pigs is lower than that of standard pigs, increasing the risk of secondary fattening, and the willingness to sell in the later period may increase. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity in the second and third quarters is in an increasing cycle, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. - The demand side shows a decline in terminal demand, poor sales of pork carcasses, and a decrease in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. However, there is still passive inventory - building in a few areas, and the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival stocking may lead to a short - term increase in demand. - Overall, the increased volume of pigs for sale by farmers causes the price to fluctuate weakly. The live hog 2509 contract fell 0.26% and is trading below the moving average. Attention should be paid to the situation of secondary fattening and sales, and the price may face further pressure in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs was 13,650 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 78,562 lots, down 118 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 663 lots, down 15 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 13,409 lots, up 959 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of live hogs in Henan Zhumadian was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping, it was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu, it was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The main basis for live hogs was 1,050 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory was 41.731 million heads, down 1.012 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4.039 million heads, down 27,000 heads. The year - on - year change in CPI was - 0.1%, up 0.6 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,373.92 yuan/ton, down 1.28 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 936.98, up 7.42. The monthly output of feed was 27.772 million tons, down 0.664 million tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows was 1,641 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit for purchased piglets was 48.2 yuan/head, down 10.26 yuan; for self - bred and self - raised pigs, it was 80.66 yuan/head, down 3.67 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork was 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The weekly average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.5 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 3.063 million heads, up 0.886 million heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 42.35 billion yuan, down 13.14 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On May 21, 2025, the daily national live hog sales volume of key breeding enterprises was 271,599 heads, up 0.83% from the previous day. Farmers are increasing the volume of pigs for sale, and the supply is increasing [2].