Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelter profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm is increasing, and overall production will continue to increase. Currently, the import window is closed, but previously imported zinc is gradually flowing in. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up, but recently the zinc price has rebounded, the downstream's atmosphere of purchasing on dips has weakened, the domestic social inventory has increased slightly, and overseas inventory continues to decline. The terminal real - estate sector has marginally improved but still drags down demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance [3]. - Technically, trading volume has shrunk. Pay attention to the support at 22,000. It is expected that the zinc price will mainly fluctuate within a range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc is 22,580 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 145; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,724.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,378 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2,483. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,240 lots, a month - on - month increase of 1,723. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 126. The SHFE inventory is 46,351 tons (weekly), a month - on - month decrease of 751. The LME inventory is 156,725 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,075 [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 490. The basis of the main ZN contract is 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 29.83 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.94. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,580 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104,100 tons. ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. ILZSG: The global monthly zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic monthly refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons. The monthly zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 266.83 tons. The weekly zinc social inventory is 66,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 63.8246 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 42.9606 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 454,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 6. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 16.62% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 16.62% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.98% (daily), a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.71% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - From January to April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 27 fixed - asset investment projects, with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan. Driven by the "Two New" policies, as of May 5th, the sales volume of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products was approximately 830 billion yuan. China will revise and expand the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment" and formulate policies to encourage foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China. - The NDRC stated that most policies to stabilize employment and the economy will be implemented by the end of June. At the same time, it will adhere to the normalized and open - ended policy pre - research and reserve, continuously improve the policy toolkit for stabilizing employment and the economy, and ensure timely implementation when necessary. - Fed's Mousalem said that the high uncertainty is prompting households and businesses to suspend spending and investment. If this situation continues, it will lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth. Fed's Jefferson will treat Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data for policy - making and expressed vigilance against rising inflationary pressures. Bostic said that the US economic growth this year may be between 0.5% and 1%. Domestically, on May 20th, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the LPR over 5 years was 3.5%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period, the first reduction in 7 months [3].
瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250521
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-21 09:14