瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250521

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On May 21, the JM2509 contract closed at 842.0, down 0.36%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal remained stable. The macro - situation shows that the central budget investment plan for urban renewal will be issued by the end of June. Fundamentally, supply is abundant, mine production is stable, and the inventory of clean coal continued to increase this period. Technically, the 4 - hour K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. It is expected to operate with a weakening trend [2]. - On May 21, the J2509 contract closed at 1417.5, down 0.14%. The first - round price cut in the spot market has been implemented. The LPR for both 5 - year and 1 - year terms was lowered by 10 basis points. Fundamentally, the short - term supply elasticity of coke is better than that of coking coal, and the room for growth in hot metal production is limited. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 7 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. It is expected to operate with a weakening trend [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 rose to 842.00 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 rose to 1417.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 decreased to 537,611.00 hands, down 3,876.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 decreased to 55,708.00 hands, down 1,785.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts increased to - 67,568.00 hands, up 49.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 J contracts increased to - 518.00 hands, up 55.00 hands [2]. - The JM1 - 9 month contract spread rose to 14.50 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; the J1 - 9 month contract spread decreased to 27.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts decreased to 3,400.00 sheets, down 400.00 sheets; the coke warehouse receipts decreased to 1,090.00 sheets, down 380.00 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - The prices of various coking coal and coke spot products remained mostly unchanged, such as the dry - Qimeng 5 raw coal at 790.00 yuan/ton, the Russian coking coal forward spot at 117.50 dollars/wet ton, etc [2]. - The JM主力合约 basis decreased to 258.00 yuan/ton, down 3.50 yuan; the J主力合约 basis decreased to 157.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants increased to 305.51 million tons, up 15.66 million tons; the clean coal inventory increased to 203.26 million tons, up 5.98 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased to 62.08%, down 0.34 percentage points; the raw coal production decreased to 38,930.60 million tons, down 5,127.60 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite decreased to 3,783.00 million tons, down 90.00 million tons; the daily average raw coal production of 523 coking coal mines decreased to 200.60 million tons, down 1.50 million tons [2]. 4. National Industry Situation - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased to 545.47 million tons, down 0.50 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports decreased to 281.38 million tons, down 2.30 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises decreased to 884.93 million tons, down 31.69 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises decreased to 94.31 million tons, down 0.13 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased to 791.21 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased to 663.80 million tons, down 7.23 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises increased to 12.58 days, up 0.07 days; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills decreased to 12.01 days, down 0.09 days [2]. - The import volume of coking coal increased to 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke decreased to 55.00 million tons, down 21.00 million tons [2]. - The production of coking coal decreased to 0.00 million tons, down 4,161.47 million tons; the production of coke increased to 4,160.00 million tons, up 30.60 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises increased to 75.70%, up 0.26 percentage points; the profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants increased to 7.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan/ton [2]. 5. National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 84.13%, down 0.51 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 91.74%, down 0.37 percentage points [2]. - The crude steel production decreased to 8,601.90 million tons, down 682.24 million tons [2]. 6. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy and promote high - quality development by the end of June [2]. - From January to April, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 3,156.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2,984.0 billion kWh [2]. - The Financial Regulatory总局 will formulate a loan management method for urban renewal projects [2]. - The EU has adopted the 17th round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on 189 Russian "shadow fleet" vessels [2].