2025年全球黄金消费洞察：变局、趋势与机遇

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the gold industry. Core Insights - The global gold consumption market is experiencing a new development trend, with a 1.4% year-on-year increase in demand for 2024, particularly driven by emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region. The value of gold as a safe-haven asset is becoming more pronounced amid rising global economic uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures [2] - The report focuses on the current state of the global gold consumption market, analyzing the supply-demand dynamics, investment strategies, and risk management for various types of investors, while also predicting future price trends and investment opportunities [2] Supply and Demand Summary - Global Gold Supply Dynamics: The global gold supply is characterized by a stable and controllable diversified supply system, with a reserve-to-production ratio of 19.4 years in 2024, indicating sufficient resource reserves. The above-ground stock is 216,000 tons, and gold mine production is 3,661 tons, with an average annual growth of 2.0% [3][8] - Gold Demand Trends: The average LBMA gold price reached $2,386 per ounce in 2024, a 23% year-on-year increase. Factors such as heightened geopolitical uncertainty, shifts in global monetary policy, and central bank de-dollarization trends are supporting strong gold demand [4] - Market Outlook: Under baseline scenarios, gold prices are expected to steadily rise from an average of $3,150 per ounce in 2025 to $3,850 per ounce by 2030, with a fluctuation range maintained between $2,700 and $4,600 per ounce [5][50] Investment Demand and Trends - Investment Demand Shift: From 2010 to 2024, global gold demand has shifted from being consumption-driven to investment-driven, with central bank purchases increasing significantly from 1.9% to 23.1% of total demand, showing a strong positive correlation with gold prices [25][27] - Gold ETF Market: In February 2025, global gold ETF net inflows reached $9.4 billion, marking a 33-month high, with total assets under management reaching $306 billion, indicating a strong demand for gold ETFs amid economic uncertainties [37] Regional Insights - Regional Demand Disparities: In 2024, gold jewelry market demand showed significant regional disparities, with China’s demand dropping to 479 tons and India’s demand at 563 tons. Developed markets like the U.S. and Europe saw declines in demand, while emerging markets like India remained resilient [30][35]