奇富科技(QFIN.O)：资产质量趋于稳定，信贷需求略超季节性趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qifu Technology (QFIN.O) with a target price of $60.34 for the next six months [4][11]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.69 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. Non-GAAP net profit was 1.93 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.3% but a year-on-year increase of 59.9% [2][3]. - The average loan internal rate of return (IRR) was reported at 21.4%, with a 6% year-on-year growth in new credit users and a 15% year-on-year increase in loan volume under a light capital model [3][8]. - The asset quality is stable, with the company adjusting its risk control strategies based on macroeconomic factors, maintaining steady risk indicators [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 operating revenue was 4.69 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. Non-GAAP net profit was 1.93 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 59.9% [2][3]. - Non-GAAP EPADS was reported at 13.51 yuan, with a loan IRR of 21.4% [2][3]. User Acquisition and Marketing - The platform saw a 6% year-on-year increase in new credit users, and the loan volume under a light capital model increased by 15% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company implemented an AI-driven marketing system that improved user acquisition efficiency, achieving a 33% increase in the conversion rate from new credit users to borrowing users [3][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The company continuously adjusts its risk control strategies based on macroeconomic fluctuations, maintaining stable risk indicators. The 90-day overdue rate decreased to 2.02% in Q1 2025, while the first overdue rate slightly increased to 5.0% [8][9]. - The introduction of a digital employee, "Xiao Qi," has enhanced the company's loan application and post-loan management capabilities, maintaining a 30-day recovery rate of 88.1% [8][9]. Financing and Capital Structure - In Q1 2025, the company issued 6.6 billion yuan in asset-backed securities (ABS), a 25% year-on-year increase, which helped reduce financing costs [9][10]. - The company completed strategic agreements with three medium to large city commercial banks, leading to a 143.6% year-on-year expansion in its fintech business [9][10]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects to achieve a Non-GAAP net profit of 1.75 to 1.85 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% to 31% [11]. - For the full year, the projected operating revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 18.8 billion yuan and 19.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 9.6% and 2.0% [11].