香港离岸人民币市场观察（2025年4月刊）：支持人民币汇率走强的积极因素增多

Group 1: Offshore RMB Market Overview - As of March 2025, Hong Kong's offshore RMB deposits totaled 9,598.48 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.3% month-on-month but an increase of 1.6% year-on-year[6] - The total RMB remittances related to cross-border trade settlements reached 11,839.76 billion RMB, increasing by 11.3% month-on-month but decreasing by 5.2% year-on-year[6] - The RMB RTGS clearing amount in March was 67.0 trillion RMB, up 12.6% month-on-month, marking the highest level in seven months[6] Group 2: Currency and Interest Rate Trends - The average USD index in April was 100.66, down 3.33% from March, with a month-end value of 99.64, reflecting a 4.37% decline[5] - The USD/CNY and USD/CNH exchange rates showed slight decreases of 0.16% and 0.05% respectively by the end of April, with average rates of 7.3025 and 7.3048[5] - The CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 1-month, and 3-month periods averaged 1.40%, 1.88%, and 1.99% respectively, showing declines of 26.2 basis points, 14.9 basis points, and 17.2 basis points month-on-month[17] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The offshore RMB bond issuance in April totaled 306.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 30.8% month-on-month and 13.1% year-on-year[30] - The offshore RMB market is expected to see increased activity in bond financing due to improved growth confidence from easing trade tensions and supportive monetary policies[33] - The market sentiment towards the RMB is optimistic, with expectations of a stronger RMB exchange rate amid favorable trade negotiations and economic data[12]