贵金属日评-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies, with increased volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position with a medium - low position and avoid full - position chasing or random guessing of the top. For those with a bearish mindset, they can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on gold and short on silver". Silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1. Intraday Quotes - Fed officials' pessimistic remarks on the US economy pushed the US dollar index below 100 again. Geopolitical concerns resurfaced as Israel was reported to be ready to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. These factors drove the price of London gold above $3300 per ounce, validating the support level between $3133 - $3200. Due to the fading optimism from the marginal improvement in Sino - US trade relations, the recent performance of silver has lagged behind that of gold, and the London gold - silver ratio has risen back above 100 [4] 3.1.2. Medium - term Quotes - In early April, Trump's tariff measures far exceeded market expectations, causing a shock in the global market and depressing global financial assets including gold. However, the triple safe - haven demand from the restructuring of the global trade and currency system, the recession of the US and global economy, and the volatility of the US financial market pushed the London gold price above $3500 per ounce on April 22. Although the gold price has retreated due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and geopolitical tensions, the medium - term upward trend remains good [5] 3.2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including the Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] 3.3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Fed officials said that US tariff hikes would lead to price increases, but it's unclear whether the inflation impact is short - lived or long - term. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects only one 25 - basis - point rate cut this year, and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem said the labor market may weaken and prices will rise even if Sino - US trade relations ease [17] - The EU and the UK announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the US. The new sanctions target Russia's shadow fleet tankers and financial companies that help Russia avoid other sanctions. Russia will not yield to ultimatums [17] - Trump pressured Republican colleagues in Congress to support a comprehensive tax - cut bill, but some Republicans may block it. House Republican leaders will continue to promote the bill and plan to vote this week [17] - The EU plans to impose a uniform handling fee on billions of small packages entering the region, mainly from China, with an estimated fee of about $2.25 per package [18] - US intelligence indicates that Israel may be preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, though it's unclear if a final decision has been made [18]