《特殊商品》日报-20250522

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The demand for natural rubber is expected to remain weak, and the expected increase in raw materials during the peak - production season will suppress the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will continue to fluctuate widely, with the operating range referring to 14,500 - 15,500. It is advisable to short at high levels within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On May 21, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 70 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, a rise of 175.00%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%. The non - standard price difference increased by 70 to - 270, a rise of 20.59% [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 815 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.61%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.00%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged [1]. - Fundamental Data: In March, Thailand's production decreased by 197,200 tons to 149,200 tons, a decline of 56.93%. Indonesia's production increased by 11,700 tons to 209,300 tons, a rise of 5.92%. India's production decreased by 21,000 tons to 53,000 tons, a decline of 28.38%. China's production increased by 15,800 tons to 15,800 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 19.98 percentage points to 78.33%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 20.32 percentage points to 65.09%. In April, domestic tire production decreased by 544,400 to 102,002,000, a decline of 5.07%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 490,000 to 5,739,000, a decline of 7.87%. In March, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 90,900 tons to 594,100 tons, a rise of 18.07%. In April, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 70,000 tons to 690,000 tons, a decline of 9.21% [1]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory increased by 4,506 tons to 618,693 tons, a rise of 0.73%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 4,435 tons to 70,257 tons, a decline of 5.94%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points to 7.04%, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points to 5.17%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao increased by 1.06 percentage points to 6.14%, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points to 7.38% [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash has new pressure with the output of Lianyungang Alkali Industry. Although the production decreased significantly due to maintenance last week and the market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June, the inventory is expected to remain flat in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after the maintenance. From May to June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. If the maintenance is implemented, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For single - side trading, short - term high - selling operations on the far - month contracts are recommended, and for inter - month trading, a long - July and short - September strategy can be considered [3]. - Glass: The spot market of glass is generally weak, and the market sentiment is still pessimistic. The spot price of glass has further declined recently. Although the downstream deep - processing orders have gradually improved from April to May and the demand of processing plants has seasonally recovered, the market expectation is poor, and there is an expectation of a summer rainy - season off - peak from June. The actual fundamentals have marginally improved, but the expectation and sentiment are moderately weak. It is expected that the glass price will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is necessary to observe whether the 1000 level can provide support for the 09 contract [3]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: On May 22, the North China quotation remained unchanged at 1,180 yuan/ton, the East China quotation decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,310 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.76%, the Central China quotation remained unchanged at 1,130 yuan/ton, and the South China quotation remained unchanged at 1,320 yuan/ton. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 1,136 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.62%, and that of Glass 2509 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1,034 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.88%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.73% [3]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest quotations of soda ash remained unchanged at 1,500 yuan/ton, 1,450 yuan/ton, 1,400 yuan/ton, and 1,120 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Soda Ash 2505 remained unchanged at 1,315 yuan/ton, and that of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,288 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.61%. The 05 basis remained unchanged at 185 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply Volume: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 8.51 percentage points to 80.27%, and the weekly production decreased by 63,000 tons to 677,700 tons, a decline of 8.52%. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 2,000 tons to 156,700 tons, a rise of 1.03%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 99,990 tons. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass increased by 1 yuan to 20.49 yuan, a rise of 5.02% [3]. - Inventory: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 522,000 weight - boxes to 68,082,000, a rise of 0.77%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 1,712,000 tons, a rise of 0.63%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 11,000 tons to 365,000 tons, a decline of 2.90%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged at 18.1 days [3]. - Real Estate Data Year - on - Year: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%, that of construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%, that of completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%, and that of sales area increased by 12.13 percentage points to - 1.55% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The spot price of industrial silicon in East China continued to decline by 100 yuan/ton, and the futures price continued to be under pressure and declined. The price has been continuously falling mainly because, even at low prices, the supply is still expected to increase while the demand remains weak. The fundamentals have not shown signs of improvement, and the price may continue to be under pressure. The price fluctuation range is adjusted down to 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price continues to fall, attention can be paid to the capacity clearance [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract: On May 21, the price of oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon in East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.14%. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 835 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.18%. The price of SI4210 industrial silicon in East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03%. The basis (based on SI4210) decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 935 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.56%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the basis (in Xinjiang) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 990 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.55% [4]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 2506 - 2507 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.67%. The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.67%. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.67%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a rise of 14.29%. The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decline of 50.00% [4]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 41,400 tons to 300,800 tons, a decline of 12.10%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 43,300 tons to 167,500 tons, a decline of 20.55%. Yunnan's production increased by 1,200 tons to 13,500 tons, a rise of 9.35%. Sichuan's production increased by 6,700 tons to 11,300 tons, a rise of 145.65%. The national operating rate decreased by 6.57 percentage points to 51.23%. Xinjiang's operating rate decreased by 17.31 percentage points to 60.74%. Yunnan's operating rate decreased by 1.84 percentage points to 18.13%. Sichuan's operating rate increased by 6.81 percentage points to 7.30%. The production of organic silicon DMC in April decreased by 15,100 tons to 172,800 tons, a decline of 8.04%. The production of polysilicon decreased by 700 tons to 95,400 tons, a decline of 0.73%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 34,000 tons to 610,000 tons, a decline of 5.28%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 1,000 tons to 60,500 tons, a rise of 1.64% [4]. - Inventory Changes: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17,000 tons to 201,400 tons, a decline of 7.79%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan decreased by 200 tons to 23,800 tons, a decline of 0.83%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 100 tons to 22,600 tons, a rise of 0.22%. The social inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 599,000 tons, a rise of 0.50%. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 328,300 tons, a decline of 0.90%. The non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 270,700 tons, a rise of 2.26% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The SMM - quoted price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of PS2507 increased by 235 yuan/ton to 35,860 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply - demand fundamentals, the demand is highly likely to decline in May, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation expectation due to the non - decreasing supply. It was originally expected that production enterprises would increase maintenance and reduce production in May and postpone the restart plan, and slow inventory reduction was expected according to industry self - discipline. However, the uncertainty of joint production reduction has increased, and the polysilicon production is expected to increase with the restart of some enterprises. As it gradually enters mid - May and the first delivery is approaching in June, the warehouse receipts are expected to gradually increase. The warehouse receipts increased significantly by 310 to 450. Attention should be paid to the digestion ability of the market. Although the quality of the warehouse - receipt products traded in the futures market is higher, and special production lines need to be planned in advance for producing delivery products, which will increase the reduction power consumption and cost, so the expected price of deliverable products by enterprises will have a significant premium compared with ordinary spot products. The overall decline in the spot price will also lower the expected futures price. It is expected that the main fluctuation range of the futures price will move down to 34,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton, and the fundamentals will weaken [5]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On May 21, the average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 36,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.67%. The average price of P - type cauliflower material decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 30,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.23%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 34,000 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material (average price) decreased by 1,235 yuan/ton to 640 yuan/ton, a decline of 65.87%. The basis of cauliflower material (average price) decreased by 1,235 yuan/ton to 6,140 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.75% [5]. - Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads: The price of PS2506 increased by 235 yuan/ton to 35,860 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.66%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.56%. The PS2507 - PS2508 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 570 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.04%. The PS2508 - PS2509 spread remained unchanged at 240 yuan/ton. The PS2509 - PS2510 spread increased by 85 yuan/ton to 285 yuan/ton, a rise of 42.50%. The PS2510 - PS2511 spread decreased by 85 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 70.83%. The PS2511 - PS2512 spread decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 1,765 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.92% [5]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly): The production of silicon wafers increased by 70 MW