《能源化工》日报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Methanol - Fundamentally, inland valuation faces downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production is set to increase. Downstream profits are divided, and new acetic acid production capacity may boost demand but cannot reverse the pattern of loose supply and demand. The port has entered a cycle of inventory accumulation. In May, imports are expected to recover to 1.1 million tons. The increase from Iran and the positive import profit strengthen the expectation of arrivals. Low MTO operation restrains demand, putting pressure on the 09 contract. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies. In the medium to long term, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound space is limited under the expectation of inventory accumulation [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: In the short term, during the concentrated maintenance period, the supply pressure is limited. On the demand side, with the recent improvement in profit, some alumina producers have the expectation of resuming production, and new production lines support demand. The purchase price of mainstream Shandong factories has been raised four times in a row, currently reaching 800 yuan/ton wet basis, supporting the spot price. The small number of warehouse receipts may reflect the strong supply - demand situation. The futures price may rise further, but non - aluminum end pressure and the increase in valuation after the cost decline of caustic soda pose risks. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines for unilateral trading. Aggressive investors can pay attention to the spot and inventory changes and cautiously attempt positive spreads [25]. - PVC: The recent rebound of PVC is mainly supported by the macro - stimulus from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the positive export situation after the extension of the BIS policy to the end of June, and the supply - demand situation of concentrated maintenance and relatively limited inventory pressure compared to the same period last year. However, in the medium to long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the weak real estate market. The Indian BIS and anti - dumping duties are potential negative factors. With the rebound of futures and spot prices, the spot market has shown a tepid response this week, which may limit the upside space. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the short term, with the resistance level for the 09 contract around 5100 [25]. Polyolefins - Overall trading is weak, and market sentiment has turned negative. For plastics, before early June, maintenance is increasing month - on - month, and some production has been switched. Currently, imports are still low. Demand has improved in the short term due to tariff cuts. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, and the static fundamentals have improved. For PP, the maintenance of the supply side reached a peak in late May, and the subsequent supply pressure will increase. Demand has short - term benefits but concerns in the medium term. Inventory is being reduced, and the static fundamentals are acceptable. It is advisable to short on rallies for unilateral trading. In terms of arbitrage, the LP spread has started to widen [31]. Crude Oil - International oil prices have fluctuated widely and declined. The main logic has shifted from macro - geopolitical factors to fundamental drivers. The continuous accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories for two weeks has intensified market concerns about oversupply. Specifically, EIA data shows that despite the approaching of the summer driving season, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillates in the US remains weak. Although the refinery operating rate has risen to 90.2%, it has not effectively digested the increase in inventory. US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) have reached 441.8 million barrels, 6% lower than the five - year average, and the inventory at the Cushing hub has decreased for two consecutive weeks to 23.89 million barrels. Shipping monitoring shows that Russia's crude oil exports have remained above 3 million barrels per day for the second consecutive week, and India's imports of Russian oil in May may reach a 10 - month high, intensifying regional supply competition. In addition, geopolitically, the deadlock in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and the potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine may change the existing sanctions pattern, and the progress of the negotiations needs to be monitored. Overall, it is highly likely that the futures price will fluctuate within a wide range. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy for unilateral trading, with the fluctuation range of WTI at [59, 69], Brent at [61, 71], and SC at [450, 510]. For option trading, opportunities for increased volatility can be captured during the range - bound period, and it is recommended to go long on volatility [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The recent trading logic of oil prices has switched back and forth between macro and geopolitical factors, with no obvious short - term direction. The EIA weekly report shows that US crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased more than expected, putting pressure on oil prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations. Recently, the unplanned maintenance losses of PX have been significant, and the postponement of some PTA maintenance and the gradual restart of previously shut - down devices support short - term PX demand. The short - term supply - demand situation of PX is good. However, the short - term upward momentum of oil prices is weak, and downstream polyester factories are considering production cuts, which puts pressure on the rebound of PX. Strategically, as long as the supply - demand situation remains tight and oil prices do not decline significantly, the downside space of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the support around 6600; the PX9 - 1 spread still favors positive spreads; the PX - SC spread has compressed in the short term [47]. - PTA: In late May, PTA devices will gradually restart, but the subsequent maintenance plan is not clear. As raw material prices rise, the losses of downstream polyester products have widened, and after the terminal market's concentrated low - price inventory replenishment, it has entered a wait - and - see state. The sales of polyester yarn have been weak, and some polyester factories are considering production cuts. The supply - demand situation of PTA is expected to weaken, and the basis has dropped significantly this week. However, with the maintenance of a PTA device in East China yesterday, the basis has stabilized. Strategically, as long as the supply - demand situation remains tight and oil prices do not decline significantly, the downside space of PTA is limited. Attention should be paid to the support around 4600; the TA9 - 1 spread favors reverse spreads [47]. - MEG: In May, there are both maintenance and restart of ethylene glycol plants. It is expected that the effective recovery of the synthetic gas - based production load will be reflected in late May. However, the 1.8 million - ton/year MEG device of Hengli Petrochemical stopped temporarily in mid - May, with an expected shutdown duration of more than one month. Due to the maintenance of two large Saudi Arabian devices, the import volume is expected to decrease, and the recent arrivals from outside are relatively low. It is expected that MEG will see inventory reduction from May to June, and the recent inventory reduction is also reflected in the port inventory. However, affected by the news of polyester factory production cuts, the upside space of MEG is limited. Strategically, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for unilateral trading; the EG9 - 1 spread favors positive spreads at low levels [47]. - Short - fiber: As the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed, some short - fiber factories are considering production cuts, and the supply of raw material PTA is expected to increase as the maintenance devices gradually return. However, supported by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, oil prices have shown a strong trend, which has a positive impact on the price of short - fiber. In the short term, the driving force for short - fiber is still weak, and the price will fluctuate with the raw materials. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of short - fiber factory production cuts. If the production cuts are implemented, there is an expectation of processing fee repair. Strategically, the trading strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; the processing fee of PF on the futures market is recommended to be widened at low levels [47]. - Bottle - grade polyester: A new 750,000 - ton/year device of Sanfangxiang has been put into production, and another 750,000 - ton maintenance device is restarting. There is still an expectation of supply increase, and it is expected that the bottle - grade polyester production will remain at a high level. However, in May, with the arrival of the peak consumption season for the terminal market, the operating rate of the downstream soft drink industry is expected to increase steadily. Under the situation of both supply and demand growth, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The absolute price of bottle - grade polyester will follow the raw materials. In addition, due to the high raw material prices, the processing fee of bottle - grade polyester has been compressed, and attention should be paid to the operating rate of bottle - grade polyester devices under low processing fees. Strategically, the trading strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 50 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to widen the spread at the lower end of the range [47]. Styrene - The recent rebound of styrene is mainly based on the revised demand expectation due to the easing of tariffs and the strong market sentiment supported by low inventory. However, the price has shown some weakness this week. Fundamentally, the high - inventory problem of the downstream 3S products of styrene may indicate that the transmission to the terminal market is not very smooth. In addition, the profit is still under pressure, and no significant increase in orders has been seen during the export - rush period, which may have a negative impact on the subsequent high - price styrene. Secondly, the supply - demand situation of the raw material pure benzene has not improved significantly. The return of domestic maintenance devices has increased the production load, and the continuous high supply from South Korea has increased the inventory reduction pressure. Therefore, it is expected that styrene will fluctuate in the short term and be bearish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 in the near - term contract. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: On May 21, the closing prices of MA2501, MA2505, and MA2509 were 2343, 2288, and 2270 respectively, with changes of 17, - 38, and 14 compared to the previous day, and the corresponding price change rates were 0.73%, - 1.63%, and 0.62%. The MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 52 to 18, a decline of 74.29%. The MA2501 - 2505 spread was 55, and the previous day's value was 0, with a division - by - zero error in calculating the rate of change. The Taicang basis (spot - MA2509) decreased by 9 to 45, a decline of 16.67%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang Port were 2038, 2180, and 2315 respectively, with changes of - 30, - 15, and 5 compared to the previous day, and the corresponding price change rates were - 1.45%, - 0.68%, and 0.22%. The regional spreads of Taicang - Inner Mongolia North Line and Taicang - Luoyang increased by 35 and 20 to 278 and 135 respectively, with increases of 14.43% and 17.39% [16]. - Inventory: The methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401%, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous week, a decline of 0.52%. The Zhongchun Port inventory was 49.00 million tons, an increase of 0.6 from the previous week, an increase of 1.34%. The weekly arrival volume was 23.0%, an increase of 2.6 from the previous week, an increase of 12.50% [16]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises was 75.5%, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous week, a decline of 0.20%. The operating rate of a certain downstream device decreased by 2.6 to 70.5, a decline of 3.61%. The sales - to - production ratio of northwest enterprises was 88%, a decrease of 5.1 from the previous week, a decline of 5.43%. The operating rate of the downstream MTO device that purchases externally was 75.68%, an increase of 8.5 from the previous week, an increase of 12.67%. The operating rate of the downstream formaldehyde device was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.25 from the previous week, a decline of 0.72%. The operating rate of another downstream device increased by 2.3 to 94.3, an increase of 2.56%. The operating rate of the downstream MTBE device was 54.2%, a decrease of 6.0 from the previous week, a decline of 9.96% [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Prices: On May 21, the 32% liquid caustic soda price in Shandong after conversion to 100% was 2625.0, and the 50% liquid caustic soda price in Shandong after conversion to 100% was 2800.0. The market prices of PVC produced by the calcium - carbide method and the ethylene method in East China were 4830.0 and 5000.0 respectively. The prices of SH2505 and SH2509 were 2528.0 and 2527.0 respectively, with decreases of 18.0 compared to the previous day, and the corresponding price change rates were - 0.7%. The SH basis increased by 18.0 to 97.0, an increase of 22.8%. The SH2505 - 2509 spread remained unchanged at 1.0. The prices of V2505 and V2509 were 5218.0 and 4969.0 respectively, with increases of 11.0 and 20.0 compared to the previous day, and the corresponding price change rates were 0.2% and 0.4%. The V basis decreased by 11.0 to - 388.0, a decline of - 2.9%. The V2505 - V2509 spread decreased by 9.0 to 249.0, a decline of - 3.5% [20]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: On May 15, the FOB price at East China ports was 390.0 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.0 compared to May 8, a decline of - 1.3%. The export profit was - 33.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.3 compared to May 8, a decline of - 171.3%. The CFR price in Southeast Asia and South Asia remained unchanged at 670.0 and 700.0 US dollars/ton respectively. The FOB price of calcium - carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port was 605.0 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.0 compared to May 8, an increase of 0.8%. The export profit was 1.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 compared to May 8, a decline of - 97.1% [21][22]. - Supply: On May 16, the operating rate of the caustic soda industry was 85.8%, a decrease of 1.7 from May 9, a decline of - 1.9%. The operating rate of the Shandong sample of the caustic soda industry was 86.3%, a decrease of 2.9 from May 9, a decline of - 3.3%. The total operating rate of PVC was 74.0%, a decrease of 3.8 from May 9, a decline of - 4.9%. The profit of PVC produced by the externally - purchased calcium - carbide method was - 1042.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.0 from May 9, an increase of 2.8%. The profit of the northwest integrated production was 296.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 109.1 from May 9, an increase of 58.4% [23]. - Demand: On May 16, the operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries were 77.0%, 80.7%, and 63.2% respectively, with changes of - 2.7, - 0.3, and 2.6 compared to May 9, and the corresponding change rates were - 3.3%, - 0.4%, and 4.2%. The operating rates of the Longzhong sample of the pipe and profile industries were 49.1% and 35.9% respectively, with changes of 0.9 and 0 compared to May 9, and the corresponding change rates were 1.9% and 0.0%. The pre - sales volume of the Longzhong sample of PVC was 63.2