LPG早报-20250522

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic LPG supply is expected to gradually increase, chemical demand is expected to recover, and combustion demand will continue to decline. Overall, the LPG market may continue its oscillating downward trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - Domestic Prices: On Wednesday, civil gas prices in Shandong remained stable at 4490, decreased by 98 to 4581 in East China, and decreased by 10 to 4840 in South China. Imported gas prices in East China remained flat at 4990, and decreased by 40 to 4950 in South China. The price of ether - post - carbon four increased by 60 to 4670. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4490 [1]. - PG Futures: The PG futures market oscillated. The basis of the 06 contract reached 254, the 06 - 07 spread weakened to 54, and the 07 - 09 spread strengthened slightly to 141. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1]. Weekly Changes - Domestic Prices: Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly. In South China, it was 4920 (-3.3%), in East China 4906 (-0.7%), in Shandong 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong ether - post was 4520 (-5.8%). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post C4 [1]. - PG Futures: The center of gravity of the PG futures market moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the 06 - 07 spread was 81 (-23), and the 07 - 08 spread was 76 (-8) [1]. - External Market: After the tariff eased, external market prices rose. MB was at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP followed slightly, reaching 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargoes decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount turned positive to single - digits. The internal - external price spread decreased significantly. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East increased slightly, reaching 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: High arrival volumes and little change in demand led to port inventory accumulation, while factory inventory remained basically flat. The LPG commodity volume was 50.41 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commodity volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease [1]. - Chemical Demand: The PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), and production margins recovered. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commodity volume was 18,450 (-1,100), and profitability expanded significantly to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%). It is expected that the operating rate will increase slightly next week. Crude oil rebound pushed MTBE to stop falling and rise. Supply was scarce, exports were stable, and manufacturers intended to hold prices, but downstream resistance increased. It is expected that MTBE will decline slightly but overall decline will be limited [1]. - Combustion Demand: As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1].