碳酸锂期货日报-20250522

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of lithium carbonate futures has slowed down, with total positions decreasing by 7,059 lots, and funds slightly leaving the market. The spot price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, and the cost - side support is ineffective. Salt plants have insufficient motivation to reduce production, and the supply side continues to pressure prices. However, the terminal demand is improving, which will support lithium prices. In the short term, the supply - side pressure and demand - side recovery coexist. It is expected that the social inventory of lithium carbonate will slightly decrease. The risk - return ratio of shorting is not good, and the rebound space of lithium carbonate is limited due to inventory pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Lithium carbonate futures fluctuated slightly up, with total positions down 7,059 lots. The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to decline, with electric carbon down 200, and ore prices also dropped. The losses of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene and mica have narrowed. The cost - side support is difficult to work as ore prices haven't stopped falling, and salt plants have little motivation to cut production. From May 1 - 18, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 484,000, a year - on - year increase of 32% and a 15% increase from the same period last month. The terminal demand for energy - storage batteries is improving due to export rush, which will support lithium prices. It is expected that the social inventory of lithium carbonate will slightly decrease [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Argentina's Mining Project: On May 20, Argentina approved a $2.5 - billion lithium project of Rio Tinto, the first mining project under the new investment incentive mechanism. Other companies applying for mining projects include Ganfeng Lithium, McEwen Copper and Posco, but only Rio Tinto's project has been approved so far [8]. - Solid - State Battery Development: Since the beginning of this year, there have been continuous positive news in China's solid - state battery field. At the 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exchange/Exhibition, many new solid - state battery products were unveiled. The solid - state battery technology is continuously breaking through, and the industrialization process is expected to accelerate. There are 49 A - share stocks related to solid - state batteries. Since May, the solid - state battery stocks have generally performed well, with the concept index up 5.4%, and 10 stocks up more than 10%, among which Guoxuan High - Tech, Xinyu Renhe and Defu Technology led the gains [9]. - Cobalt Export Policy: On May 20, CMOC called on the Democratic Republic of the Congo to lift the cobalt export ban, warning that the current policy is accelerating car companies' shift to cobalt - free batteries. Congo (DRC) imposed a four - month embargo in February. CMOC plans to produce 100,000 - 120,000 tons of cobalt this year. After the embargo expires on June 22, it may switch to a quota system, which may further support the rebound of cobalt prices [9].