建信期货钢材日评-20250522

Report Overview - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: May 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - On May 21, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2510 oscillated, while the main contract of stainless steel futures 2507 oscillated upward. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of rebar and hot-rolled coil are small, and market sentiment has improved. In the short term, the futures prices will maintain an oscillating trend [5][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Trends - On May 21, the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in the spot market remained mostly unchanged, with only the hot-rolled coil price in Nanjing dropping by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts showed a divergent downward trend, and the daily MACD red bars of both contracts shrank [8] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Currently, the output of the five major steel products has slightly declined, inventory has increased, and the demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil has dropped from its peak. In terms of downstream demand, there are multiple signs of recovery in the real estate market. The steel demand in the automotive, shipbuilding, and machinery industries has generally maintained a high growth trend. Macroscopically, the Sino-US tariff situation has eased, the expectation of rush exports has increased significantly, and the expectation of downstream demand has recovered. In the future, the short-term futures prices will maintain an oscillating trend [10] 3.2 Industry News - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.019 million tons, remaining flat year-on-year; from January to April, the cumulative crude steel output was 345.351 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. From January to April 2025, Hebei ranked first with an output of 73.5503 million tons, followed by Jiangsu with 41.978 million tons and Shandong with 24.3396 million tons [11] - According to Mysteel, in May, HBIS Group's tender price for 75B ferrosilicon was set at 5,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from 5,950 yuan/ton in April, with an inquiry price of 5,700 yuan/ton [11] - As of May 19, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 146.2763 million tons, a decrease of 2.5825 million tons from the previous Monday [11] - On May 21, the capacity utilization rate of 104 electric furnace plants across the country surveyed by Fubao Information was 40.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous week. The daily consumption of scrap steel was 245,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons from the previous period, a growth rate of 3.1%. The daily consumption of electric furnaces has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the daily consumption level of 104 electric furnaces has reached a new high in nearly 18 months [11] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national average daily pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and the May contracts [14][15][24][27][31]