原木期货日报-20250522

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a log futures daily report dated May 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the next few weeks. New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, and the current FOB price continues to decline, maintaining a weak balance in the fundamentals. With a significant expected decrease in arrivals this week, the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On May 21, log2507 was at 780.0 yuan/m³ (up 3.5 yuan/m³ or 0.45% from May 20), log2509 at 794.0 yuan/m³ (up 3.0 yuan/m³ or 0.38%), and log2511 at 796.0 yuan/m³ (down 0.5 yuan/m³ or - 0.06%) [2] - Spreads: The 7 - 9 spread was - 14.0 (up 0.5), the 9 - 11 spread was - 2.0 (up 3.5), and the 7 - 11 spread was - 16.0 (up 4.0) [2] - Basis: The 07 contract basis was - 30.0 yuan/m³ (down 3.5), the 09 contract basis was - 44.0 yuan/m³ (down 3.0), and the 11 contract basis was - 46.0 yuan/m³ (up 0.5) [2] - Spot prices: Most spot prices remained stable, except for the 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 yuan/m³ or - 1.28% [2] - Foreign quotes: The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 110 dollars/JAS m³, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 123 euros/JAS m³, both unchanged [2] - Import cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.207 yuan (down 0.01), and the import theoretical cost (15% over - length) was 780.07 yuan (down 1.24) [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly supply: Port freight volume in April was 200.3 million m³ (up 39.0 million m³ or 24.17% from March), and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 66.0 (up 8.0 or 13.79%) [2] Group 6: Inventory - Weekly inventory: As of February 9, China's total log inventory was 341.00 million m³ (down 2.0 million m³ or - 0.58%), with inventories in Shandong at 189.90 million m³ (up 3.1 million m³ or 1.66%) and in Jiangsu at 111.86 million m³ (down 2.5 million m³ or - 2.18%) [3] Group 7: Demand - Weekly demand: As of May 16, China's daily average log出库 volume was 6.14 million m³ (down 0.01 million m³ or 0%), with Shandong at 3.20 million m³ (down 0.10 million m³ or - 3%) and Jiangsu at 2.22 million m³ (up 0.07 million m³ or 3%) [3][4]