沪锌期货早报-20250522

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive candle and increased trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with a slightly larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volume - driven rebound. The price rebound attracted active long - position entry, while short - selling pressure was stronger. The short - term market may experience a volatile consolidation. Technically, the price closed above the 20 - day moving average, with strong support from the moving average. Short - term indicators KDJ are rising, and the trend indicator shows that long - position strength is increasing while short - position strength is decreasing, with the two forces in a stalemate. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2507 will be in a volatile consolidation state [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In February 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1245 million tons, consumption was 1.1079 million tons, with a supply surplus of 16,600 tons. From January to February, global zinc sheet production was 2.253 million tons, consumption was 2.2275 million tons, with a supply surplus of 25,500 tons. In February, global zinc ore production was 984,000 tons, and from January to February, it was 1.963983 million tons. This situation is bearish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc was 22,810 yuan/ton, and the basis was +400, which is bullish [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On May 21, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,150 tons to 157,875 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 126 tons to 1,400 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Futures Market Quotes on May 21 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 230,535 lots, with a total trading value of 2.58754076 billion yuan. Open interest increased by 2,483 lots to 226,378 lots. Different delivery months had different price movements, with price increases in the range of 75 - 240 yuan [3]. 3.5 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on May 21 - The price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,590 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 22,810 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets in China was 4,009 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes in China was 4,400 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,425 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,640 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.6 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (April 24 - May 19, 2025) - Compared with the previous Thursday, the total inventory decreased by 0.15 million tons; compared with the previous Monday, it decreased by 0.07 million tons. Inventory in different regions showed different changes, with some regions increasing and some decreasing [5]. 3.7 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on May 21 - The total zinc warrants decreased by 126 tons to 1,400 tons. Warrants in different regions and warehouses had different changes, such as a decrease of 101 tons in Guangdong and a decrease of 25 tons in Jiangsu [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on May 21 - LME zinc inventory in major global warehouses increased by 1,150 tons to 157,875 tons [7]. 3.9 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on May 21 - Zinc concentrate prices in different regions with a 50% grade were in the range of 17,590 - 17,790 yuan/ton, all up 120 yuan/ton [8]. 3.10 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on May 21 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters were in the range of 22,400 - 24,610 yuan/ton [12]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in April 2025 - The planned production value in April was 454,800 tons, and the actual production was 450,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, and a 0.97% shortfall compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 83.15%, and the planned production for May was 444,100 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on May 21 - The processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions were in the range of 3,300 - 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate was 40 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.13 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on May 21 - For the zn2507 contract, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 143,011 lots, an increase of 27,262 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 70,186 lots, an increase of 6,750 lots, and the total short - position volume was 71,098 lots, an increase of 7,136 lots [18].