GWMOTOR(601633) China Securities·2025-05-22 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Views - The company's Q1 revenue and net profit were 400.2 billion yuan and 17.5 billion yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 6.6% and 45.6% respectively. The decline in profitability is attributed to short-term factors such as a new product gap and direct store construction. However, sales and performance are expected to improve throughout the year as new vehicles are launched [2][3][4]. - The company is accelerating its transition towards smart and new energy vehicles, with new car launches and marketing system reforms aimed at boosting domestic sales. The expansion into overseas markets is also expected to contribute to steady growth in exports, enhancing the sales structure and gradually improving profitability [11][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company's revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 400.19 billion yuan, 17.51 billion yuan, and 14.69 billion yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 6.63%, 45.60%, and 27.12% respectively. The revenue decline was primarily due to a new product gap affecting sales, while the average selling price remained stable [2][3]. - The total vehicle sales in Q1 were 257,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. Exports and domestic sales were 91,000 units and 166,000 units, reflecting declines of 2.0% and 9.1% respectively [3][4]. Profitability - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 were 17.84% and 4.38%, down 1.53 percentage points and 3.13 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in gross margin was mainly due to a slight drop in sales volume and changes in product mix [4][10]. - The company expects profitability to gradually recover as the domestic new car cycle begins in Q2, with a stabilization of expense ratios anticipated as direct channel investments become more stable [4][9]. Future Outlook - The company plans to launch several key models in Q2, including the second-generation Xiaolong MAX and the all-new Gaoshan, which are expected to drive sales and optimize the product mix. The introduction of new models throughout the year is anticipated to contribute significantly to sales growth [3][10]. - The core logic for the company's performance growth in 2025 is driven by the domestic new car cycle, which is expected to boost domestic sales, alongside steady growth in exports to non-Russian regions [10][11].