大越期货菜粕早报-20250522

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of import tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products [9]. - The short - term demand for rapeseed meal in the spot market is gradually recovering, but the impact of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products may be limited as tariffs on rapeseed imports have not been imposed [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rebounding. Influenced by soybean meal trends and technical adjustments, low oil - mill operation rates and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. The short - term demand for spot rapeseed meal is increasing, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is rising, but the short - term inventory pressure on oil mills is not significant. The market has returned to range - bound trading [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, leading to a tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the outcome uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume: From May 12 - 21, the average transaction price of soybean meal decreased from 3200 to 3009, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2420 - 2480. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market narrowed from 750 to 549 [13]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory decreased from 3.6 million tons last week to 2.9 million tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 19.44%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.38% compared to 3.2 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing changes in production, consumption, and inventory over the years [24][25]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: The market is neutral, affected by factors such as soybean meal trends, low inventory, and tariff policies. - Basis: The spot price is 2460, with a basis of - 92, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. - Inventory: The decrease in inventory is bullish. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish. - Main Position: The decrease in long positions of the main contract is bullish. - Expectation: In the short term, rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory, tariff policies, and soybean meal trends [9].