大越期货豆粕早报-20250522

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2880 - 2940. The domestic soybean meal may show a short - term pattern of weakening oscillation due to factors such as the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate within the range of 4160 - 4260. The domestic soybean is affected by the subsequent China - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans, and may show a short - term oscillation pattern [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, the good weather for US soybean planting recently led to a short - term decline after the US soybean market rose. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the subsequent China - US tariff war [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory increased from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybeans are affected by the implementation of the China - US tariff war and have returned to an oscillation pattern, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal decreased after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal entered a short - term pattern of weakening oscillation [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillation pattern in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and further guidance on the subsequent China - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - Slow clearance of imported soybeans at customs [14]. - Low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [14]. - Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May [14]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans continues [14]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. Bearish for Soybeans - The expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans [15]. - The expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2860, with a basis of - 74, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 12.17 tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 25, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 586.83 tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The number of long positions of the main contract increased, but the funds flowed out [9]. - Soybeans: The number of short positions of the main contract increased, and the funds flowed in [11].