工业硅期货早报-20250522

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 67,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 73,000 tons, an 8.96% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 599,000 tons, a 0.50% increase; the sample - enterprise inventory was 247,600 tons, a 6.53% decrease; the main - port inventory was 132,000 tons, a 0.75% decrease [8]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,615 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [7]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 7,760 - 7,970 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned output for May is 94,800 tons, a 0.62% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: The silicon - wafer output last week was 12.42 GW, a 0.56% increase; the inventory was 194,400 tons, a 7.22% increase. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 54.3 GW, a 6.94% decrease from the previous month. The battery - cell output in April was 65.55 GW, a 14.35% increase; the external - sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.91 GW, a 76.56% increase. The production of battery cells is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 60.84 GW, a 7.18% decrease. The component output in April was 59.4 GW, a 16.47% increase; the expected component output for May is 53.03 GW, a 10.72% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 51.3 GW, an 11.74% increase; the European monthly inventory is 41.28 GW, a 14.35% decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type materials in the industry is 36,330 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 170 yuan/ton [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 35,215 - 36,505 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost support has increased, and the supply - side production plan has decreased [7][8]. - Basis: On May 21st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory situation is mixed, with an increase in social inventory and decreases in sample - enterprise and main - port inventories. Bearish [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. Polysilicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost is stable, and although the supply - side production plan is decreasing, the demand is expected to recover in the medium term [10][11]. - Basis: On May 21st, the price of N - type polysilicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history. Neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the longs decreased. Bullish [11]. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract down 1.32%, the 02 contract down 1.09%, etc. [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon also showed a downward trend, with the price of East - China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon down 1.15% [18]. - Inventory data showed changes in different regions, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts increased, and the prices of various silicon - related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some having small fluctuations [20]. Downstream Market Analysis Organic Silicon - DMC production: The daily production capacity utilization rate was 60.11%, remaining unchanged from the previous period and lower than the historical average [41]. - Price and cost: The price of DMC and other organic - silicon products remained stable, and the cost and profit situation showed certain characteristics, with the profit of DMC at - 301 yuan/ton [18][41]. - Inventory: The monthly inventory of DMC was 105,000 tons, a 7.49% decrease [18]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: The daily price of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,400 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply and demand: The monthly production of primary - aluminum - based aluminum - alloy ingots increased by 4.45%, while the monthly production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 5.28% [18]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots was 13,900 tons, a 5.44% decrease [18]. Polysilicon - Cost: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained stable at 36.33 yuan/kg [20]. - Price: The prices of various polysilicon products showed a downward trend, with the price of granular silicon down 1.52% [20]. - Supply and demand: The supply and demand situation showed certain changes, with the monthly supply increasing by 6.66% and the monthly consumption increasing by 7.03% [20]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, and the domestic component inventory increased by 11.74% [20].