大越期货贵金属早报-20250522

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the precious metals industry. Core Viewpoints - The tax cut bill has raised concerns about deficits, leading to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. Gold and silver prices have shown upward trends, with the logic shifting to the US tax cut bill. Although there is still suppression from the optimistic expectation of trade negotiations, the upward trend of precious metal prices has returned. The domestic sentiment for gold has heated up rapidly, and the premium of Shanghai gold has expanded significantly [4]. - For gold, the expected factors include the press conference on science and technology financial policies, euro - zone PMI, ECB meeting minutes, and speeches by ECB and Fed officials. The logic has turned to the US tax cut bill, and the upward trend of gold prices has resumed [4]. - For silver, the upward momentum may be re - accumulating, and it follows the trend of gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The tax cut bill caused deficit concerns, resulting in a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. COMEX gold futures rose 0.97% to $3316.60 per ounce. The situation is neutral. The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, the European major stock markets showed mixed performance, the US dollar index fell 0.42% to 99.60, and the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.2040. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 11.56 basis points to 4.605%. The gold basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 9 kilograms to 17247 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it; the main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the tax cut bill led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. COMEX silver futures rose 1.21% to $33.58 per ounce. The basis of silver shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11577 kilograms to 940799 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The expected events for the day include a press conference on science and technology financial policies, euro - zone PMI, ECB meeting minutes, and speeches by ECB and Fed officials. The logic has shifted to the US tax cut bill. Although there is still suppression from the optimistic expectation of trade negotiations, the upward trend of gold prices has returned. The premium of Shanghai gold has rapidly expanded to about 8 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment has heated up rapidly [4]. - Silver: The upward momentum of silver prices may be re - accumulating, and it follows the trend of gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged [6]. 3. Today's Focus - The events to be concerned about include Japan's March core machinery orders at 07:50, ECB Governing Council member Vujcic's speech at 16:20, Japan's May preliminary PMI values for manufacturing, services, and composite at 08:30, speech by Bank of Japan审议委员野口旭 at 09:30, India's May PMI values for manufacturing, services, and composite at 13:00, a press conference on science and technology financial policies and a regular press conference by the Ministry of Commerce, and ECB Governing Council member Holzmann's speech at 15:00, etc. [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The futures price is 778.78, the spot price is 774.8, with a basis of - 3.98 (spot at a discount to futures). The inventory of gold futures is 17247 kilograms, an increase of 9 kilograms [4][5]. - Silver: The report does not provide comprehensive fundamental data for silver in this section, but mentions the increase in the inventory of Shanghai silver futures [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on May 21, 2025, the long positions were 192,028, an increase of 7.54% from the previous day; the short positions were 84,668, an increase of 6.81%; the net long positions were 107,360, an increase of 8.13% [30]. - Silver: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on May 21, 2025, the long positions were 482,330, an increase of 9.64% from the previous day; the short positions were 323,858, an increase of 4.15%; the net long positions were 158,472, an increase of 22.87% [32].