A股公司简评报告：海博思创(688411.SH)国内大储盈利能力进入稳定区间，海外今年预计放量，业绩有望持续高增

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has entered a stable profitability phase in domestic energy storage, with overseas sales expected to ramp up this year, leading to sustained high growth in performance [1][12] - The company achieved revenues of 8.27 billion, net profit of 648 million, and non-deducted net profit of 628 million in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 18.4%, 12.1%, and 11.9% respectively [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 1.55 billion, net profit of 94 million, and non-deducted net profit of 78 million, with year-on-year changes of +14.9%, -40.6%, and -51.5% respectively, and a significant quarter-on-quarter decline [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The annual performance aligns with previous forecasts, with energy storage system sales reaching 11,815 MWh, indicating a decline in average selling prices due to falling bidding prices in the domestic market [3][4] - The average selling price for the first quarter of 2025 is estimated at 0.5 yuan/Wh, with unit profitability dropping to approximately 0.026 yuan/Wh [4] - The company achieved overseas sales revenue of approximately 539 million, with a gross margin of 42.14%, significantly higher than domestic margins [5][11] Market Outlook - The company is a leading player in domestic energy storage integration, with expectations for stable domestic prices and continued volume growth [1][12] - The overseas market is anticipated to be a new growth driver, with expected sales volumes reaching GWh levels, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Australia [11][12] - The company has established partnerships with major international energy storage system integrators, enhancing its market presence and delivery capabilities [11] Future Projections - Forecasts for the company's net profit are 858 million, 1.11 billion, and 1.30 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding valuations of 15, 12, and 10 times [12][14] - The report predicts that domestic bidding prices will stabilize or even increase, benefiting leading companies in the sector [12]