广发期货日评-20250522

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below and high pressure for upward breakthrough. For the stock index, A - share sectors rotate with stable trading volume. The short - term 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond interest rate may be in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. Gold may continue to rise if it stabilizes at $3300 (775 yuan), and silver may follow gold to冲击 the previous high of $33.5 (8350 yuan). The container shipping index is in short - term consolidation, and industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Crude oil is affected by macro and geopolitical risks, and the future depends on OPEC+ production policies in June. Many commodities have their own price trends and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Index has stable support below and high upward pressure. For IF2506, sell put options at the support level to earn premium; for IM, go long on the September contract on pullbacks and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for covered call strategies [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and 30 - year between 1.85% - 1.95%. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral strategies and focus on high - frequency economic data and capital flow [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold may continue to rise if it stabilizes at $3300 (775 yuan), and silver may follow to冲击 the previous high of $33.5 (8350 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options and take profit opportunistically [2]. Black Sector - Steel: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Consider long hot - rolled coil and short coke or coking coal strategies. Iron ore is in a range - bound between 700 - 745. Coke prices are in a new downward phase, and coking coal may be in the bottom - hunting stage [2]. - Silicon - based Alloys: Silicon iron has marginal improvement in supply - demand with stable costs, ranging between 5500 - 5800. Manganese ore has supply pressure, and the price ranges between 5500 - 5900 [2]. Non - ferrous Sector - Base Metals: Copper's social inventory is de - stocking, with the main contract focusing on the 78000 - 79000 resistance. Zinc's main contract ranges from 21500 - 23500. Nickel's main contract ranges from 122000 - 128000. Stainless steel has cost support but supply - demand contradictions, with the main contract ranging from 12600 - 13200. Tin prices are boosted by strong reality, and consider shorting in the 265000 - 270000 range [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: Affected by macro and geopolitical risks, the future depends on OPEC+ production policies in June. WTI may range from [59, 69], Brent from [61, 71], and SC from [450, 510] [2]. - Other Chemicals: Urea's main contract may fluctuate between [1820, 1920]. PX and PTA are supported by tight supply - demand. PF, PR follow PTA trends. MEG may fall due to downstream production cut expectations. EB is short - term volatile and medium - term bearish. Caustic soda can be considered for positive spread trading. PVC rebounds slightly but the spot market is weak. Synthetic rubber is falling. LLDPE and PP have weak supply - demand. Methanol's inventory has a turning point [2]. Agricultural Sector - Grains and Oils: Soybean meal is strong due to market speculation on Argentine weather. Corn has limited downside and rebounds. Palm oil is strong due to improved exports. Sugar has a loose overseas supply outlook. Cotton is affected by the easing of the Sino - US trade war [2]. - Livestock and Poultry: Pig futures are weak in the short - term. Eggs' spot price is in low - level oscillation. Apples' trading volume is low due to the busy farming season. Jujubes are in low - level oscillation. Peanuts' price is stable [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special Commodities: Soda ash can be considered for positive spread trading in May - June. Glass should observe the support at the 1000 - point level. Rubber is bearish with a trading range of 14500 - 15500. Industrial silicon prices are falling, with a range of 7500 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. - New Energy Commodities: Polysilicon futures are in low - level oscillation, with a price range of 34000 - 40000 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate's main contract ranges from 58000 - 62000 [2].