摩根士丹利：Investor Presentation-中国工业最新动态

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - The construction machinery sector is expected to see a marginal improvement in domestic demand into 2025, driven by slightly increased construction activity as cash flow improves, while export momentum may slow down [6][29] - Heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales are forecasted to grow low single digits year-on-year in 2025, with an expected total of 940,000 units sold, primarily due to domestic demand [6][30] - The automation and general equipment market is anticipated to experience mild recovery in 2025, although momentum may be disrupted in the second and third quarters due to tariff impacts [7][41] - The humanoid robotics sector is gaining traction as a strategic focus for many companies, with significant attention on solution upgrades and adoption progress towards 2025 targets [7][70] Summary by Sections Construction Machinery - Domestic sales of construction machinery, including excavators and non-excavator machinery, showed an accelerating recovery in the first quarter of 2025, while crane sales are declining at a slower rate [29] - The average utilization rate of construction machinery improved to 60% in April 2025, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [21] Heavy-Duty Trucks (HDT) - The HDT market was soft in the first four months of 2025, with total sales of 355,000 units, reflecting a 1% year-on-year decline [30] - LNG HDT sales decreased by 11% year-on-year to 64,000 units in the first four months of 2025, while new energy HDT sales surged by 196% year-on-year to 46,000 units [34][37] Automation and General Equipment - The automation market is expected to see a mild recovery, with total market growth of 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [55] - Industrial robot shipments grew by 12% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, indicating sustained growth momentum [63] Market Trends and Projections - Infrastructure construction and manufacturing capital expenditure showed solid momentum in 2024, with infrastructure FAI growth at 10.8% year-on-year [14][12] - The total addressable market (TAM) for automation is projected to grow from RMB 182 billion in 2023 to RMB 260 billion by 2030, with a localization rate expected to increase from 40% to 60-70% [68]