摩根士丹利：nvestor Presentation-美元走弱跨资产展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for Asia's growth due to prevailing tariffs and uncertainty, expecting a slowdown of 90 basis points from 4Q24 to 4Q25 [5][3]. Core Insights - Asia's real GDP growth is forecasted to decline from 4.8% in 4Q24 to 4.0% in 4Q25, reflecting the impact of elevated US tariffs on imports from Asia [5][4]. - The US is expected to experience a more significant slowdown, with growth projected to decrease by 150 basis points from 4Q24 to 1% in 4Q25, which may improve the Asia-US growth differential in favor of Asia [7][8]. - Asia continues to maintain a sizeable current account surplus, contrasting with the widening current account deficit in the US [10][11]. Economic Forecasts - The report forecasts Asia's real GDP growth rates for upcoming quarters, with estimates of 4.1% for 1Q25 and 4.2% for 2Q25, indicating a gradual recovery after the anticipated slowdown [4]. - The current account balance for Asia is projected to remain positive, while the US is expected to face increasing twin deficits [11][12]. Tariff Impact - The report highlights that existing US tariffs on imports from Asia remain elevated, with an effective reciprocal tariff rate of 33.2% as of January 2025 [4][5]. - Potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are paused, but the overall tariff environment continues to exert pressure on Asia's economic growth [4][5]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report suggests that a weaker US dollar will introduce additional disinflationary pressures on Asia, with forecasts indicating a decline in Asia's headline CPI [16][17]. - Asia's manufacturing capacity utilization rates are also affected by tariffs, contributing to disinflationary trends [18][21]. - The report anticipates that monetary policy easing will play a crucial role in supporting economic growth in Asia, particularly in economies excluding China [25][26].