摩根士丹利：美国经济年中展望-增长依然缓慢，通胀坚挺

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the US economy, projecting that it will avoid a recession despite slow growth and firm inflation [20][21]. Core Insights - The US economy is expected to experience GDP growth of 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with inflation peaking in Q3 2025 before gradually declining [21][24]. - High tariffs and tighter immigration policies are significant factors contributing to slower economic growth and firm inflation [2][15]. - The effective tariff rate is currently at 13%, which is higher than previously anticipated [18][35]. Economic Growth - GDP growth is forecasted at 1.0% Q4/Q4 for both 2025 and 2026, with economic activity expected to be nearly flat in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [2][21]. - Personal consumption expenditures are projected to slow significantly, from 3.1% growth in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026 [4][40]. Inflation - Headline and core PCE inflation are expected to be 3.0% and 3.3% respectively in 2025, with a decline to 2.2% and 2.3% in 2026 [5][38]. - The inflationary impact of tariffs is anticipated to be transitory, with inflation expectations potentially becoming more malleable due to prolonged above-target inflation [5][38]. Labor Market - The labor market is expected to cool gradually, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026 [6][21]. - Employment growth is forecasted to slow significantly, with a drop from 144,000 jobs per month in early 2025 to around 50,000 in 2026 [6][38]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy rate until March 2026, with potential cuts thereafter [7][21]. - The Fed's target range for the federal funds rate is projected to be 2.50-2.75% by the end of 2026, indicating deeper cuts than currently anticipated by the market [10][21]. Fiscal Policy - The federal fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 7.1% of GDP in 2026, driven by slower economic growth and automatic stabilizers [77][78]. - Fiscal policy is projected to be less expansionary, with a modest contribution to GDP growth anticipated [85][86]. Investment Trends - Nonresidential fixed investment is forecasted to slow from 2.3% growth in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, reflecting cautious business sentiment [57][58]. - Residential investment is expected to grow only modestly, with pressures from tariffs and immigration controls limiting new construction [69][70].